No one should be surprised if the US bombs the Houthis and other pro-Iranian warring factions in the Red Sea region.
Since the work of the American strategist Alfred Mahan (1840-1914), protecting trade routes has been one of the main tasks of the US Navy. This protection is seen as essential to maintaining the prosperity of the United States and much of the world.
About 12% of global maritime trade passes through the Red Sea.
While the Houthis are wrong to impede trade in the Red Sea, their cause is not without merit. This is because Saudi Arabia has installed a puppet regime in Yemen that is toppling the Houthis from power. However, the Houthis, who are predominantly Shiite, make up about 40% of Yemen's population.
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Islamists and anti-Americans
The Houthis are led by Islamist leaders who are very close to Iran and very anti-American. In this sense, the Houthis' actions are not necessarily dictated by reason, but rather by religious fanaticism and hatred of the United States and Israel.
The resources available to the United States and its allies to neutralize the Houthis are immense.
However, the Houthis do not claim to have defeated the United States. Their main aim is to hinder trade in the Red Sea. Their bet has largely paid off as this trade is down 30% in 2023 and continues to decline. Of course, chartering ships that circumnavigate Africa rather than transit the Suez Canal costs much more, contributing to global inflation.
The Iranian government claims that its influence over the Houthis is very weak. Yet it is he who is arming the Houthis.
With China's trade affected by bombardment in the Red Sea, Beijing is putting pressure on the Iranian government to deter the Houthis from continuing their attacks. This is likely to make it more difficult to supply arms to the Houthis.
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a little hope
However, the United States cannot expect anything other than a temporary regional lull. As long as the Iranian mullahs' regime exists, Tehran will continue to expand its destabilizing military influence in the region.
However, contrary to Israel's wishes, a US attack against Iran is not on the agenda, if only because of the costs of such a war.
Likewise, it is fanciful to think of persuading Saudi Arabia to leave Yemen.
The conflicts in the region are due to a variety of problems that are currently insoluble. These include increasing droughts caused by climate change and religious fundamentalism that darkens the spirit.
In the absence of sufficiently powerful world powers to police this part of the world, we must expect a more frequent and ever-increasing resurgence of armed conflicts and barriers to trade.