These days, past and present come together in the story of Gershon Baskin (New York, 67 years old). Since emigrating to Israel in 1978, he promoted secret channels to resolve the Middle East conflict and over the past two decades helped negotiate directly with Hamas ceasefires, proofs of life and, most notably, the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners of soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011 Among the more than a thousand detainees released in this exchange was the current leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Yahia Sinwar, considered the mastermind of the October 7 surprise attack and without his green light – from where hidden – the second Exchanges that Israel and Hamas are currently negotiating through Qatar, Egypt and the United States will not take place now. Baskin, Middle East director of the human rights NGO International Organization of Communities, is not involved in the current dialogue but maintains contact with his intermediaries and offers the perspective of someone who has addressed positions in the past and spoken to movement leaders had been doing for years. Islamist. “This is the strangest negotiation in the world because both parties are completely committed to the destruction of the other. There is no trust. Just the trust that you want to kill me and I want to kill you […] “The ones I carried out never took place under similar circumstances to the current ones: not so many hostages, not with such enormous damage in Gaza, not while such a war was going on,” he said in an interview at his home in Jerusalem .
All in all, Baskin believes it is “very likely” that a second exchange will be agreed, complementing the exchange in the last week of November in which 105 hostages and 240 Palestinian prisoners were released. However, he clarifies that only the first part may be fulfilled. According to various sources, the agreement would involve three or four phases, with the staggered release of the 132 hostages remaining in Gaza: first, the civilians; then the soldiers and finally the corpses (officially 29, but it is believed there are many more). In return, Israel would release a large number of as-yet-undetermined Palestinian prisoners, including important names, during a six- to eight-week ceasefire. The former mediator also recalls that the discussions on the proposal outlined a week ago in Paris are still focused on defining the general framework: “It is the details that make the agreement possible or not,” he emphasizes.
The main difference between the parties is the point of arrival, not the point of departure. Hamas insists that the war be ended and all troops withdrawn, something Israel rejects, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated this Sunday. “We will not accept an agreement and not at any price,” he said in the face of growing pressure from the families of the abductees and from his concentration leadership.
And this is the knot that complicates everything. “The agreement that Hamas is proposing enshrines the belief that it will continue to rule Gaza after the war. In reality, Israel could accept all three phases and implement only one of them. Or say that you agree with the complete end of the war and then [cuando tenga en sus manos todos los rehenes] continue it. Or release prisoners and then arrest them again. However, there is a feeling within the Israeli government that accepting the end of the war and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, even if it had no intention of abiding by it, would be a capitulation to Hamas and at the local, regional and international levels as such “would be perceived,” he says.
The problem with this fight is that it leaves little room for a compromise solution. “You can negotiate times, logistics and names [de los excarcelados]“Who will be released first, who will be released later…” but at the end of the day, Israel’s dilemma is “accept Hamas’ demands or not.” “Based on my 17 years of experience with Hamas, they say what they believe and believe what they say. And they typically make no concessions on the principles that characterize their relationship with Israel. “I find it difficult to imagine Hamas giving in or changing its position if it believes it will emerge from the war retaining control of Gaza,” he said. Illusory? “I don’t know how illusory that is. Getting them out is harder than Israel thought. And if one thing has been known since the beginning of the war, it is that no one in Hamas is irreplaceable; when a commander in chief is killed [de su milicia]will be replaced immediately.”
This is where the character of Sinwar comes into play. Baskin has never negotiated with him directly, but she has indirectly gained the impression that “he is not afraid of dying” and that – since he was released from prison after serving 22 years for the killing of two Israeli soldiers and “I think the most important thing for him, more than his own life, is the release of all the prisoners,” he adds.
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Baskin does not hide her position on the exchange, for which the center-left party opposing Netanyahu is putting more pressure; while the right emphasizes the absolute destruction of Hamas and also the reconstruction of the settlements evacuated in 2005, which is defended by some factions of Israeli conservatism. The activist wears a sweatshirt with the liberation advocates' motto – “We're bringing them home now” – and the yellow ribbon that distinguishes them. “Israel ceases to be Israel if these hostages are sacrificed,” he argues. “Our country, our government failed to protect us on October 7th. If the hostages are sacrificed now, why should an Israeli stay here? Why should you send your children to the army? When this fundamental part of Israel's ethos of leaving no one behind is broken; It will take generations to repair the damage to Israeli society. “You can end the war, withdraw the troops, bring back all the hostages and then restart it at any time,” he concludes.
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