College hoops fans can look forward to a matchup between two standout Mountain West teams on Friday night as the New Mexico Lobos travel to Southern California to take on the San Diego State Aztecs.
If you're thinking about staying up late to watch this game, I would encourage you to do just that because this match looks like a must-see. Both teams are in the thick of the conference race and could use a win to stay in the race.
Looking at college basketball odds, SDSU is the favorite by 6.5 points while the overall odds are at 152.5.
The Aztecs have won three of the last four MWC regular season titles and are undefeated at home this season (12-0).
The Lobos have enough talent to beat almost any team in the country, but they will have to exorcise their demons at Viejas Arena, where they have lost seven of their last eight games.
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for New Mexico vs. San Diego State on Friday, February 16th.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State – the best odds
New Mexico vs San Diego State tips and predictions
Both teams bring a lot of excitement to this duel between two top basketball teams. Current college basketball futures at DraftKings Sportsbook list the San Diego State Aztecs at +210 to win the Mountain West regular season title, while the New Mexico Lobos aren't far behind at +350.
Richard Pitino's Lobos are a trendy early pick to advance deep in March thanks to a star-studded starting lineup that, on paper, rivals almost anyone else in the country.
Star guards Jaelon House (15.6 ppg) and Jamal Mashburn (15.3 ppg) are holdovers from last year's squad and are surrounded up front by two impressive newcomers – freshman JT Toppin (12.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2 blocks per game). and Iona transfer Nely Junior Joseph (8.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.5 blocks per game).
Not to mention the team’s leading scorer and assist player – sophomore Donovan Dent. He emerged as arguably the team's best player while dropping 15.6 points and 5.8 dimes per night as a true point guard.
They will get every ounce of energy out of their stars on Friday night against the Aztecs, who have won seven of their last eight home games in this matchup.
Brian Dutcher's team made it to the NCAA Championship game last year, and while this year's team isn't quite as fearsome, it's certainly no pushover. Big man Jaedon LeDee is one of the most dominant forces in the country, averaging 20.3 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Reese Dixon-Waters (11.3) and Micah Parrish (10) are the only other players averaging double figures.
These teams met in Albuquerque on January 13th when the Lobos escaped with an 88-70 victory. Another win on Friday would be the first regular season win against the Aztecs since 2016-17.
I head to the player prop market to find my best bet between two quality teams. LeDee is listed with a score of 19.5, which is too low.
First of all, he's playing at home, where he's been a monster this season. The chiseled senior is averaging 21.6 ppg at Viejas Arena. Second, this is a tempo-up game against a New Mexico team that wants to go out and run and ranks seventh nationally in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. That should lead to more possessions for the Aztecs and therefore more opportunities for LeDee to fill the stat sheet.
Finally, this New Mexico defense places an emphasis on leading teams away from the 3-point line. The Lobos are holding teams to 30.5% shooting from downtown while opponents are making just 34.9% of their shots from behind the arc, which is the 275th lowest in the country.
They tend to get quite a lot of looks, ranking 200th in close attempt rate and 272nd in shot close allowed compared to the average opponent, according to Haslametrics. LeDee should capitalize on this matchup and I'm betting he goes over the 20-point mark in the big game on Friday night.
My best choice: Jaedon LeDee Over 19.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Same game between New Mexico and San Diego State
Jaedon LeDee Over 19.5 points
New Mexico +6
Here's a two-leg SGP where I combine my best bet with New Mexico and the points. Essentially, it's a bet that LeDee has a big play but the Lobos can keep up.
Pitino's squad was one of the most profitable teams in the country with an outstanding ATS of 17-7. That's in stark contrast to SDSU (10-12-1 ATS), as the Aztecs were of course slightly overrated after their incredible success in the NCAA Tournament last year.
Recent history suggests SDSU should win again at home, but I wouldn't be surprised if New Mexico at least hangs on and keeps this game close considering this is the most talented Lobos team yet we have seen for a long time and everything is fine, we are working together better and better as the season progresses.
They are an offensive force averaging 84.1 ppg and have three legitimate attack options in the backcourt. How many college basketball teams can say that?
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New Mexico vs. San Diego State distribution and over/under analysis
This line opened at SDSU -5.5 but was bet at -6.5 in most books. The total, meanwhile, has fallen by half a point from 153.5 at the opening level to 152.5 at the current time.
Be sure to track any future fluctuations with our college basketball line movement tool before placing your bet.
SDSU went 1-1 during a two-game road trip last week, beat Air Force 77-64 but fell to Nevada 66-70. The Aztecs returned home this Tuesday with an impressive 71-55 win over Colorado State.
New Mexico also went 1-1 last week, winning 91-73 at Wyoming, but suffered a rare home loss to UNLV by a score of 77-80. The Lobos have two road games under their belt this week, winning the first game at Nevada 83-82 after Mashburn hit two crucial three-pointers.
When it comes to totals, both teams have trended toward the over this year – SDSU is 13-10 O/U while New Mexico is 14-10 O/U.
Normally the pace of play follows that of the home team, especially when the teams are of similar caliber. That means SDSU may look to slow the pace here, as it ranks just 220th in adjusted pace, and try to keep New Mexico's backfield from lighting up the scoreboard.
SDSU has generally played to the minors in this home game and is 1-4 O/U in its last five games against New Mexico at Viejas. The Aztecs have generally trended toward the under in conference play, going 6-14 O/U in their last 20 games against Mountain West opponents.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State betting trend worth knowing
New Mexico has allowed an opposing player to score 20 or more points in six of its last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for New Mexico vs. San Diego State.
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Information about the game New Mexico vs. San Diego State
| Location: | Viejas Arena, San Diego, California |
| Date: | Friday, February 16, 2024 |
| A notice: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
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Key injuries between New Mexico and San Diego State
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