Many politicians and officials seized the moment to urge that Ukraine would lose the war without the additional $60 billion in U.S. military aid currently awaiting a vote in the House of Representatives. But they also seemed far from certain about what a Ukrainian victory might look like, even with this upswing.
The conference comes as confidence over whether President Joe Biden can deliver for Ukraine is particularly low and former President Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, is working to undermine the package.
The plan now, as detailed or lamented in interviews with eight U.S. lawmakers and five foreign officials, is simply to prevent the collapse of Ukraine's military.
Many avoided the question of what a Ukrainian victory would look like or when it might come.
Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said the aid package would be a “game changer” for Ukraine. But he declined to say the support would ensure a Ukrainian triumph, saying only that American aid was Kiev's last and best hope.
“I know of no other way for Ukrainians to get the weapons, ammunition and tools they need in the short term than from the United States,” added Warner – one of 44 US lawmakers in Munich.
The range of possibilities on the battlefield remains enormous, with or without further arms deliveries to Ukraine. “Somewhere between Afghanistan, driving out the Russians through essentially partisan guerrilla warfare, and large-army conflict like we have right now is where it ends,” Whitehouse said.
There is a shortage of ammunition and infantry in Ukraine. The decades-old fortress of Avdiivka fell to the Russians over the weekend, giving the Kremlin its first major conquest since May. Before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky changed leadership at the top of his country's military, generals insisted that the president needed to mobilize 500,000 more troops to keep pace with a larger, still stronger Russian force that appears poised to accept massive losses in order to gain just a few meters of the ground.
“When a citizen of Europe reads that Ukraine has withdrawn from Avdiivka, he should be aware of one single fact: Russia has moved a few kilometers closer to its own homeland,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview. “Every advance by Russia in Ukraine brings Russian weapons closer to the home of a middle-class European.”
Senior administration officials insist that America's commitment to the Ukrainian cause has not wavered. “Putin will not stop unless he is stopped,” said U.S. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, who arrived in Munich after watching U.S. troops train a new Ukrainian battalion at an American base in Germany. “And I don’t want opponents watching what’s happening in Ukraine and what it says about American will to come to the conclusion that we’re going to let a leader like Putin do whatever he wants.”
In their view, the best – and only – way to prevent this is still on the table: passing military aid through Congress. “Pass the supplement. That's it. Let's destroy Putin's army. Ukrainians know how to do this, so we’re helping them,” added Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo).
Lawmakers from both parties in Munich assured ally after ally that the House would eventually green light the aid, with some predicting passage as early as March. They insisted that the majority of MPs would support the bill once it was in the House of Representatives. But Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) feared an X-factor: the chairman of the Republican Party, former President Donald Trump.
“Former President Trump appears to be trying to derail support for the current bipartisan amendment passed in the Senate,” the House Defense Committee member said in an interview.
Zelensky, clearly concerned about this prospect, took advantage of public opportunities to promote his country's interests. “This package is crucial for us. “We are not currently exploring alternatives because we count on the United States as our strategic partner,” he said Saturday at a news conference with Vice President Kamala Harris.
There is no Plan B if lawmakers don't give the package the green light, Harris confirmed. “There is only Plan A.”
Confidence in what Ukraine can achieve – and in President Joe Biden – appears to be at its lowest level in two years. “The US wants a photo of happy allies working together,” a NATO official, who like several others in this story was granted anonymity to offer candid views, said on the sidelines of the event. “But without that real American support, without that leadership, it’s going to be very difficult.”
Ukrainian officials aren't talking about alternatives, insisting they need weapons and ammunition – particularly Taurus and the army's long-range tactical missile system – to deter Russia. A Ukrainian lawmaker said there was concern in Kiev about Washington's lack of leadership, both in passing the amendment and in sending – and encouraging allies – to send more long-range munitions to Ukraine. The official had just returned from the front in the south and said that the lack of ammunition was directly causing Ukraine to lose ground and soldiers.
At the Munich Security Conference last year, the nervousness was visible, but not overwhelming. The United States and its allies had banded together to defend Ukraine, retaking captured territory from Russia and preparing for a decisive counteroffensive. There was a long road ahead, but the fight was positive. Just days later, Biden stood in Warsaw after a surprise visit to Zelensky in Ukraine and proclaimed: “Kiev stands proud, it stands tall and, most importantly, it stands free.”
But the counteroffensive failed and the ground offensive stalled, leaving both Ukrainian and Russian forces playing a game of artillery ping-pong across the 600-mile front. Kiev has had more success in the Black Sea, sinking several Russian ships in the strategic waterway, but it hasn't done much to improve the optics of a war that drags on. No one on either side of the Atlantic – and especially in Kiev and Moscow – can predict what is to come.
“We will have a Russia problem no matter how the war ends,” said Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, who also warned that while “in 2023 the West may have been too optimistic” about the war , “but we must be careful not to be too pessimistic in 2024.”
The uncertainty has strengthened Ukraine's skeptics. They insist that the US turn off the tap and instead focus on the home front. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), arriving in Munich to present a counterposition, said he supported Kiev's fight but America could not produce enough weapons to arm Ukraine while protecting the United States.
“Europe needs to be a little more independent when it comes to self-defense,” he emphasized in an individual press conference outside the conference venue. “You have to improve. There will be a turning point in American policy focused on East Asia. Faced with this reality, Europeans must take a more aggressive role.”
However, most MPs did not want to leave Munich without giving hope. They repeatedly contradicted the idea that Ukraine was irretrievably in trouble.
“I cannot imagine that Russia could ever win this war. Their definition of winning is taking over and occupying the land. They will never occupy Ukraine,” said Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “Wars end when one or both sides have fought to the point of exhaustion and then you sit down and talk. There is no side.”
And Whitehouse argued that Ukraine will never stop pushing back against Russia even if it doesn't get more support: “There is literally no chance that Ukrainians will endure Russian occupation peacefully.”
Suzanne Lynch and Josh Posaner contributed to this report.