This is the announced second leg. However, if Biden and Trump, for whatever reason, are not their party's US presidential nominees in November, a period of political confusion would begin.
For what?
Why shouldn't the 81-year-old Democratic president or his 77-year-old Republican predecessor be on the ballot on November 5th?
Regardless of whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins in 2024, both would then be the oldest American presidents to take the oath of office.
Although neither man has reported serious illness, the risk of mortality or a serious health accident increases over the years.
What about voluntary withdrawal? “It’s an incredibly ridiculous rant,” claims Democratic strategist Rachel Bitecofer.
Joe Biden regularly repeats that he is the most qualified candidate, even though polls show his age is turning off voters.
“What are you supposed to say? “Oh, he's fine. Will he do a triathlon tomorrow?” Anyway. He’s 81 years old,” said Adam Smith, an influential Democratic elected official. “No one of importance ran against him, so here we are,” he continues.
Donald Trump faces decades in prison in several criminal cases. But the Republican currently shows no willingness to give in, despite the threat of possible conviction before the election.
How?
If Joe Biden or Donald Trump were to leave the race before the end of the primaries, the final say would be left to the delegates of the two congresses, that is, “8,567 people you have never heard of,” with very different profiles, explains Elaine Kamarck, researcher at the Brookings Institute, in a recent note.
A somewhat similar scenario presented itself to Democrats on March 31, 1968, when President Lyndon B. Johnson publicly announced in the midst of the Vietnam War that he would not seek a second term.
But since then, the conventions – the Republican one is from July 15 to 18, the Democratic one from August 19 to 22 – have always been clearly defined affairs, the results of which are known in advance and determined by the primaries have preceded in every state.
In the event that Joe Biden or Donald Trump leaves before the summer, Elaine Kamarck predicts that for the respective party it will be “the kind of party conference where anything is possible.”
What happens if something bad happens to the nominated candidate between the party convention and the election? It is then the “national committee” of each party that nominates the candidate in an extraordinary meeting.
On the Republican side, the party is being reshuffled and Donald Trump has proposed adding his daughter-in-law Lara to his staff, which would give the Trump camp enormous leverage in choosing a possible replacement.
WHO?
This is the most open question.
No rule provides that the vice president automatically replaces the incumbent candidate. Joe Biden has already named Vice President Kamala Harris for the campaign, but Donald Trump has not yet made his choice official.
On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris, the first woman and first African American in this position, could face competition from the young guard, especially from some prominent governors: Gavin Newsom (California), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania). .
On the Republican side, “the body is smaller,” explains Hans Noel, a political science professor at Georgetown University, because of the damage done by the primaries, largely dominated by Donald Trump.
He is reminiscent of the former president's very vicious attacks against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has already given up, or against former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, hated by many Trumpists and still holding out.
“Nikki Haley may have been an alternative before, but now no one who likes Trump will support her,” he said.
Finally, one final scenario remains: the emergence of an independent candidate. But so far no independent candidate, even a relatively popular one, poses a real threat to the two-party system.
In 1992, for example, Texas businessman Ross Perot, an independent candidate, had received 19% of the popular vote but failed to win any of the votes that really counted: those of the 538 voters who, state by state, determine the outcome of the vote.