- By Lyse Doucet
- Chief foreign correspondent in Munich
1 hour ago
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UN Secretary General António Guterres (2nd from left) and top EU diplomat Josep Borrell (2nd from right) had a lot to discuss
It's called the Munich Rule: Engage and Interact; Don't lecture each other or ignore each other.
But this year, at the 60th Munich Security Conference (MSC), two of the most discussed people weren't even there.
This included former US President Donald Trump, whose possible return to the White House could derail the work of transatlantic relations that is at the heart of this important international forum.
And Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been vehemently blamed by one world leader after another for the death of his most prominent critic, Alexei Navalny, not to mention his all-out invasion of Ukraine, which continues to cast a long, dark shadow across Europe and beyond over and beyond.
The devastating news of Navalny's death, which broke just hours before the conference began on Friday, underscored once again the dangerous unpredictability of a world marked by numerous fault lines and deep-rooted interests.
“We live in a world where there is more and more confrontation and less cooperation,” lamented the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell. “The world has become a lot more dangerous,” he told me as the conference ended Sunday.
“Lose lose?” was the motto of this year's meeting at a time of increasing geopolitical tensions and staggering economic uncertainties.
The MSC's annual report warned that this could lead to a “lose-lose” dynamic between governments, “a downward spiral that threatens cooperation and undermines the existing international order.”
“I think this was the conference of a disordered world,” said David Miliband, CEO and president of the International Rescue Committee (IRC).
“It is a world dominated by impunity, where the guardrail stabilizers are not working and that is why there is so much disorder, not only in Ukraine, Gaza and Israel, but more generally in countries like Sudan, where the humanitarian crisis “The agenda is not even moving forward,” he said.
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Watch Yulia Navalnaya speak after news of her husband's death
This issue of impunity, one of the toughest political challenges, suddenly became a poignant personal story when Navalny's wife, Yulia Navalnaya, unexpectedly appeared on the main stage of the conference at the large Bayerischer Hof hotel to condemn the Russian president and the assembled presidents urging prime ministers, defense chiefs and top diplomats to bring him to justice.
Her remarkable composure and clarity stunned the packed hall, earning her a sustained standing ovation before and after she spoke with palpable pain.
Both Russia and Iran were not invited to Munich this year because, according to the organizers, they had no “interest in a meaningful dialogue”.
Image source: EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
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At the Munich conference, protesters against Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine made their voices heard
In previous MSC forums, veteran Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's biting speeches stirred anger and tension in the main hall, and Iran's visible presence highlighted the rivalries and risks that urgently need resolution.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky repeatedly stressed the need to continue the West's extensive military and financial support for Ukraine, calling on participants to action as he rushed from one high-level meeting to the next.
“The year 2024 requires your response – from everyone in the world,” he implored delegates as he spoke from the top podium.
Crucial US support has been at the forefront of his mind as a vital $60bn (£48bn) security package is being held up by a US Congress where Republican lawmakers are increasingly divided over whether to support Kiev in its fight should continue to support.
Back home in Ukraine, the soldiers at the front are even running out of bullets.
Image source: EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
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Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh argued that a “serious ceasefire” in Gaza was urgently needed
U.S. delegates in Munich, including Vice President Kamala Harris, stressed that they and President Joe Biden would not abandon Ukraine and America's leadership in global affairs.
But with the US election just nine months away, Mr Trump is already shaping the polarized political debate in Washington and rekindling fears that he could withdraw the US from the NATO military alliance and other international commitments.
“They know what they have to do, but they can't do it, and that is the gap that needs to be closed,” said Miliband, assessing the commitments made by the US and European allies in Munich.
Others were even harsher in their criticism.
“Many words. No concrete commitments,” Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute of International Affairs, posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. “It’s a sad MSC2024.”
The gaps were even more glaring when it came to the devastating war between Israel and Gaza that broke out after Hamas' murderous attack on southern Israel on October 7.
Israel's military operations have caused a staggering number of civilian casualties and have devastated much of this coastal strip.
“We have seen a really strong interest from the international community and the world leaders gathered here in Munich that they want to see a serious ceasefire and a significant amount of international assistance to Gaza,” Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh noted in an opinion interview.
But Israeli delegates, including former peace negotiator Tzipi Livni, reiterated the need to move forward.
“I am a political opponent of [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, but I support the war in Gaza,” she stressed in a meeting also attended by Mr. Shtayyeh and Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi.
“I support the strategic need to eliminate Hamas as a terrorist organization and as a regime,” Ms. Livni said.
This year's MSC had a record number of visitors: more than 900 participants, including around 50 heads of state and government from around the world, more than 100 ministers as well as representatives from think tanks, non-governmental organizations and leading companies.
Top spies, feminist foreign ministers, climate campaigners, Iranian activists, weapons experts, technology wizards and more all gathered for their own gatherings on public stages and in private rendezvous and quiet circles.
All of this highlighted how the world's understanding of “global security” is constantly changing.
Over the decades, this forum – which emerged in 1963 in the search for peace and prosperity during the Cold War – has often also been a site for real-time diplomacy.
But in a year marked by concerns about lose-lose dynamics, Munich has been a place for much conversation and reckoning as the world nervously wonders where the next blows will land.