- By Natalie Sherman
- Business Reporter, New York
1 hour ago
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Nancy Pontius says she's not worried about the 'big picture economy'
Nancy Pontius is willing to share an unpopular view: She doesn't think inflation is a big problem, and worries about the economy won't influence her vote in the November election.
But that's not because the 36-year-old Democrat hasn't felt the same financial strain as tens of millions of Americans in recent years.
“I definitely felt the increase in gas prices,” says the mother of two from Pennsylvania, “but I also knew it would probably be temporary.” Ms. Pontius voted for Joe Biden four years ago and plans to do so again to do, motivated by issues like abortion. “I’m not worried about the overall economy,” she says.
That confidence is welcome news for Mr. Biden, whose first term was marred by a one-time 18% price jump that fueled economic discontent and eroded political support.
Even as the American economy's booming recovery from the pandemic sparked envy abroad, opinions at home remained strongly negative.
Now there are signs that things could be changing, as gasoline prices fall back to $3 a gallon nationwide and wages move closer to matching price increases.
Economic sentiment — what some pollsters call the “mood” people feel around the economy — has improved in business surveys in recent months.
Democrats like Nancy are as positive about the economy today as they were in 2021, when prices were just beginning to rise — and more positive than at any point during the Trump presidency, according to the University of Michigan, which has surveyed consumers for decades. Even Republican voters' views have brightened somewhat, their research shows.
The White House hopes the shift in sentiment will continue and strengthen support for the president as the November election approaches – particularly in key swing states like Pennsylvania.
But that is anything but guaranteed.
The president's approval ratings are at the lowest level of his term, hurt by concerns about immigration, his age and the war in Gaza.
And despite the positive signs, overall economic sentiment has not yet recovered from the impact of the pandemic, despite solid growth and a historic stretch of unemployment below 4%.
Among Democrats, the problem particularly hits Mr. Biden among those under 30, only a quarter of whom rated the economy as excellent or good in a recent Pew poll, compared to 70% of those 65 and older.
Kim Schwartz, a 28-year-old health care technician from Pennsylvania, voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but was disappointed with his economic policies.
“I don’t see progress in getting more money into the hands of middle and working class Americans that they can keep up with.” [inflation]“I will vote, but whether it will be write-in or third party or Biden, I don’t know.”
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Kim Schwartz says construction is a sign her area is growing “like crazy” – but the future still seems bleak
Although her financial situation has improved since 2020, when she struggled to cover her expenses while studying and working part-time, she still browses multiple grocery stores every week in search of the lowest prices.
She postponed work on her car due to costs; and big financial and life goals, like buying a house, still seem out of reach.
“I’m surviving,” she says. “It is enough to maintain, but not enough to improve or progress.”
It is a truism in American politics that the state of the economy determines elections. On that basis, Mr. Biden is likely to be in safe territory, with growth of 2.5% last year and inflation falling sharply from its 2022 peak of 3.1% last month.
But the typical weekly wage in the US, adjusted for inflation, remained lower at the end of last year than when Mr Biden took office.
Frustrations like Kim's appear again and again in political polls, where majorities express serious concerns about the prices of food, consumer goods and housing and describe the economic situation as “bad” or “fair.”
“It's like a race and you're trying to keep up,” said John Cooke, a 34-year-old restaurant manager in Pennsylvania.
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John Cooke says a drop in gas prices since last year doesn't mean much when other costs are still rising
Although business is good at the restaurants where he works, he says inflation has eaten into profits and he hasn't received a raise.
“Car insurance went up, health insurance went up, my rent went up. They say the economy is doing well. It’s great to show me all these numbers, but how does it help me?”
Republicans, who have a historic electoral advantage on economic issues, have made the economy one of their main lines of attack, accusing Mr. Biden of inflation and blaming his “tax-and-spend” agenda for driving up prices to drive.
Economists say generous government financial support to households during the pandemic has helped boost inflation by boosting consumer demand and cushioning household budgets, allowing companies to raise prices without a major setback.
But the shock to oil prices caused by the war in Ukraine and the supply bottlenecks associated with the pandemic also played an important role.
Democrats have held their ground in elections since 2020 – including the 2022 midterms – by blaming broader forces for inflation and focusing on non-economic issues that motivate the base. But independent and rare voters who value the economy highly are more likely to vote in presidential elections.
“The core issues that the Biden coalition cares about are still issues like abortion, gun safety, voting rights and climate change,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of the progressive polling firm Data for Progress. “But in an election where a few thousand votes count in a few states, you can’t leave any issue off the table for swing voters.”
Strategists say Mr. Biden has relied for too long on the big national numbers to defend his record — a response that felt emotionally distant.
“If you just say the economy is great; GDP is great – no one has ever bought a dozen eggs with GDP. Nobody cares,” said pollster Celinda Lake, who worked on Mr. Biden’s 2020 campaign.
This criticism seems to have been received. In recent weeks, Mr. Biden has adopted a decidedly more populist tone, attacking companies for price gouging and “shrinkflation” – charging more for less – and sharpening his criticism of “extreme MAGA Republican” economic policies.
Don Cunningham, a longtime Democratic politician in Pennsylvania, says he expects the gap between economic sentiment and reality to heal in the coming months.
Mr. Cunningham heads the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation, promoting investment in a former steel region that was hit hard by the industry's decline in the 1980s but is now enjoying a revival.
“I see challenges [for Biden] But they have nothing to do with economic problems,” he says. “How people feel personally, how the candidates make them feel, whether there's an age gap, whether younger people are frustrated because no one from their generation is there… that's it.” All real questions that impact how People vote and why they vote.”
There are signs that a significant number of Americans are dismayed about the likely election they face in November – with Mr Biden and Mr Trump expected to face a rematch in 2020.
Even Nancy's urgency has diminished. Four years ago, she proudly displayed a Biden sign on her lawn, but she plans to keep a more low-key approach to the 2024 race, wary of upsetting her neighbors.
“Maybe we’ll still put out the Biden-Harris sign,” she says. “But I was ready to be a little louder in 2020…than I am now.”