After months of silence, the former German minister announced his intentions after a CDU meeting this Monday in Berlin.
Correspondent in Brussels
After months of real tension, Ursula von der Leyen, 65, is now officially a candidate for a second term at the head of the commission. She announced this this Monday in Berlin at a CDU meeting, of which she is a member. And this large German center-right party, which was eagerly awaiting his candidacy, immediately gave him its blessing.
This synchronization is just the first step in a long and very clearly defined process. Then, on March 6th and 7th, the EPP Congress will take place in Bucharest, where the President of the Commission will be officially named the European right's leading candidate for the June elections. A formality when you consider that “VDL” doesn’t have the slightest competitor in the EPP. It has been said in Brussels for months that the outgoing Commission President is “the natural candidate” for her own successor. If the EPP achieves first place in the elections as predicted in the polls, it will become the future President of the Commission. At least the one that has the best chance of becoming one, knowing that the twenty-seven must come to an agreement after the European elections before the European Parliament confirms their election by majority vote.
Natural candidate
Suffice it to say, things were a lot easier for the former German defense minister in 2019, when she ended up being selected without even being a candidate. The Twenty-Seven had then successively “killed” the German Manfred Weber and the Dutchman Frans Timmermans – respectively the leading candidate of the EPP and the European Social Democratic family – before the name of the protest. Angela Merkel's age was not suggested by Emmanuel Macron and confirmed by his colleagues. A method that was heavily criticized at the time by the European Parliament, which felt that the elections had been stolen by the Twenty-Seven. If “VDL” has little choice but to play by the rules this time, it is not following logic to its logical conclusion. In fact, she will not officially run on a CDU list. “She should really take part in these elections. But his name will not be on the lists anywhere in Germany,” regrets German ecologist Daniel Freund.
There is a resignation. It will pile up again because there is nothing better
European source
On the part of the heads of state and government, the extension for another five years is likely to be passed by the Commission. Certainly his appointment is part of the broader process of top positions. Heads of state and government must not only agree on this position, but also elect the next President of the European Council, the future High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs. And each of the leaders who are members of the major EU parties – EPP, S&D and Renew – will claim their share of the cake. In the event of a blockade, the Twenty-Seven could pull another candidate out of the hat, as they did in 2019. The names of ECB President Christine Lagarde and former Italian Council President Mario Draghi have also been circulating in recent weeks. However, this is not the most likely scenario. The EPP, whose twelve top politicians sit at the European Council table, will use its full weight and the vote will also take place with a qualified majority. Given the numerous crises facing the EU, leaders are likely to opt for stability by renewing “VDL”. “There is a resignation. It will pile up again because there is nothing better,” comments a senior European official.
Yet the former defense minister persevered in the face of the extraordinary and unprecedented crises that were Covid and then the war in Ukraine. Even when she made damaging missteps or miscommunications, this excellent rider always knew how to let the storm pass and get back in the saddle without losing her frozen smile. . This was the case in early 2021, when leaders, despondent over the failure of vaccines to arrive, called on EU ambassadors and Commissioner Thierry Breton to take back control of the matter. This was also the case when the Commission proposed restoring a border around Ireland on the difficult Brexit issue. Or even more recently, in October 2023, when VDL went to Israel and did not find a single word for the dead in Gaza, forgetting, as an EU diplomat emphasizes, that they represent “not Germany, but Europe”.
Too lonely and vertical
The leaders could also criticize him for being too lonely and vertical. At the end of November, a European diplomat commented on the start of Ukraine's EU accession negotiations and the support of 50 billion euros promised by “VDL” for Kiev as if this were a given. “If I were him, I would switch to underwater mode now. When you say, “I've made up my mind,” people ask themselves, “Why did she?” The question is the distribution of power.”
If you don't completely forget about them, these road trips fade into the background. “VDL” has the support of the German Olaf Scholz. And at this point it seems to have that of Emmanuel Macron, who still keeps his cards in his hand. The President received “VDL” in Paris on February 13th for “a detailed discussion”. Upon his arrival, the President descended the steps of the Elysée Palace to greet him. Then both of them put a beaming smile on the photographer's face. “As far as the communication process is concerned, I don't have the impression that there is anything negative about it. “This production was not compulsory,” analyzes a European interlocutor. The President-in-Office of the Commission has also increased the number of trips with leaders in recent months, in particular the Italian Giorgia Meloni and the Spanish Pedro Sanchez, whose support will be crucial. Last summer she also spent a day with Greek Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Suffice it to say that his decision was carefully considered, thoroughly examined and prepared.
Apparently “VDL” has also recently thought about what the program for his next term in office could look like. It will be completely different than the first. The Green Deal, which has caused headaches for many capitals and European citizens, will be further developed but will no longer have the same importance. However, EU security will be a key issue. While the Europeans urgently need to strengthen their military resources, last weekend in Munich she defended the creation of a defense commissioner position that would at least be responsible for the defense industry. A signal to Paris, which is tirelessly calling for the strengthening of the European defense industry. Union enlargement and internal reforms within the EU will also be one of the priority issues of the next term.
In the European Parliament things could be much more complicated. In this assembly, in which the conservative and sovereign right are expected to win a significant number of seats next June, the outgoing president would face a large gap to secure the support of the future majority MPs – PPE, S&D and Renew to back up. “She will need a stable coalition with parliament,” said Johannes Lindner, director of the Center Jacques Delors think tank, “and she will move a little to the right.” In 2019, she was narrowly elected by just 9 votes. Members of his political family had criticized him for being imposed by the Twenty-Sevens. This time this process cannot be initiated against him.
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