Super Bowl LVIII has come and gone, and as the NFL offseason begins there has been plenty of discussion about what the 49ers could have done to beat the Kansas City Chiefs.
It's no surprise that coach Kyle Shanahan's decision to let San Francisco get the ball first in overtime is still a topic of conversation – but wasn't the surprising decision so controversial?
NBC Sports' Peter King addressed the topic in his latest “Football Morning in America” column, gathering the opinions of several analysts to determine whether Shanahan's OT call was truly a gamble.
“I understand some of the criticism of Shanahan for taking the ball at the start of overtime,” King wrote. “Many of his players say they were unaware of the new overtime rules, so if they had scored a touchdown on the first possession, they could have received an unsportsmanlike penalty that would have shortened the field for Mahomes. That is bad.”
“But last week I spoke to a team analyst for background information and to Keegan Abdoo from Next Gen Stats. Neither had a problem with Shanahan's decision – they both felt it was almost a matter of choice whether to take the ball or kick it.”
Because the 49ers got the ball first under the NFL's new overtime playoff rules, they gave the Chiefs a chance to respond with a score of their own after San Francisco kicked a field goal early in the overtime quarter. The 49ers ultimately lost 25-22 after Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs scored a walk-off touchdown.
As a result, Chiefs like Travis Kelce and others within the organization were confused by San Francisco's decision, as it meant Kansas City knew exactly what they needed to do on their ensuing possession to win, essentially gaining an extra down on the field Away.
After the loss, Shanahan explained that analytics played a big role in the decision.
“We went through the analytics,” Shanahan said, “and we just decided we wanted the ball on third down.”
So King asked a third analyst. The consensus was that despite the widespread outcry, Shanahan and the 49ers made a decision that perhaps wasn't stupid at all.
“I thought it was almost a mistake,” Mike McRoberts of Championship Analytics, which advises five NFL teams, told King. “With the gun to my head, I would have done what Kyle did. Whoever designed this rule did a good job because the outcome shouldn't be determined by the toss of a coin and each team gets at least one full possession of the ball.
“It’s not a gimmick at all.”
While it certainly makes Shanahan's decision easier to understand, expert opinions can do nothing to ease the pain of the 49ers' yet another Super Bowl loss. And whether it's a bust or not, the pick will be one that the 49ers Faithful will wrestle with all offseason.
Download and follow the 49ers Talk Podcast
