European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen Facing Ongoing Crisis

Ursula von der Leyen has spent her presidency of the European Commission amid a series of ongoing crises of such magnitude that we have to go back decades to find precedents of this magnitude. Almost at the same time as he took office, on December 1, 2019, the first cases of Covid-19 were detected in Wuhan (China). Within weeks, he had to deal with the effects of the worst pandemic in 100 years. Shortly thereafter, in February 2022, Russia launched the first large-scale invasion of one European country into another in Ukraine since 1945. With this conflict, the global security architecture has exploded, leading to an energy crisis and inflation at levels never seen in decades . Europe has responded to all these crises with progress in integration that would have taken years under other circumstances. To her credit, von der Leyen counts the successful vaccination campaign against Covid-19 or a major step towards eliminating dependence on Russian gas.

The mandate of the German, who was Minister for Family, Labor and Defense under Chancellor Angela Merkel, is nearing its end. Von der Leyen, 65, wants to repeat this for another five years. The challenge in this five-year period is to strengthen Europe's competitiveness and take a step towards a common defense policy. If he repeats it and achieves just the second part of his goal, he would change the community club forever.

The German Christian Democrat, who received the support of her party this Monday in Berlin and will receive the support of her political family, the European People's Party (EPP), in March, is the person best suited to chair the Commission again to take over. But he hasn't done it all yet and his path won't be easy: first he has to negotiate with the member states about his team's portfolios and then he has to get confirmation from the new European Parliament that will emerge after the elections. European elections in June, in which nothing guarantees the grand coalition of conservatives and social democrats and everything indicates that the ultra parties will have more weight.

Alberto Alemanno, Jean Monnet Professor of EU Law at the HEC Paris business school, believes that the “permanent emergency mode works in Von der Leyen’s favor” in the re-election. Alemanno adds another element that could work in her favor: “She is perceived as someone who is quite strong on the outside and weak on the inside.” This last part has to do with the fact that national governments generally do not want someone who is very independent and strong to hold top positions in the EU so that it is easier for them to impose their will or give in as little as possible.

Four months before the European Chamber elections, it is time to take stock of the Von der Leyen Commission. The Christian Democrat, mother of seven children and experienced rider, who likes to present herself as the daughter of Europe – she was born in Brussels, where her father was a high official – has carried out major reforms in the energy sector (e.g. the reform of the electricity market), economic (the recovery fund proposed by Spain and supported by France and Germany with 750,000 million euros to help Member States deal with the pandemic crisis) and health (such as the joint purchase of vaccines that was also carried out). (controversial at the beginning, or a European vaccination certificate). In addition, the local government he leads has taken unprecedented steps in the areas of security and defense to support Ukraine and accompany it on its path to becoming a candidate country.

Complicated end of semester

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However, his end to the term was complicated. In the spring he demanded more money from member states for the new priorities (and a 50 billion euro package for Ukraine) and the partners only agreed to provide a third of the demands. Kiev's financial lifeline was almost destroyed by Hungarian resistance. In addition, Von der Leyen has had to abandon some of her Green Pact's key environmental reforms – which are central to her plans – due to farmers' protests, industry pressure and a lack of support from her own conservative political family, calling for a “realistic green agenda” and turns increasingly to the right.

Von der Leyen wanted to increase the geopolitical weight of the EU. By supporting Ukraine, he has achieved part of this great goal. However, in recent months this has been hampered by the slow pace of military aid on the front lines. Another incident, his trip to Israel shortly after the October 7 Hamas attacks and the day the Israeli army began its siege of Gaza, drew enormous criticism. Von der Leyen's visit – added to an already planned trip by European Chamber President Roberta Metsola – during which she met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and showed some restraint over the massacre of Palestinian civilians that angered several member states and led to new ones Divisions with the global south, which accused the EU of applying double standards.

His very personal and presidential style of work received criticism. It is also clear in the Brussels bubble and even within the Commission itself that it overshadows the work of its commissioners. And he has a “great desire for notoriety,” says a community source. So, in February 2023, she herself traveled to London to sign the Windsor Agreement, which settled the Northern Ireland dispute between the United Kingdom and the EU over Brexit, and there was not a single place for Maros Sefcovic, the Commissioner, to do so A solution was found over many months with various British ministers and prime ministers.

Von der Leyen's possible second term, if it comes to fruition, poses a big unknown. Does it have to reverse some of the policies to combat climate change? His own party has already expressed clear signs last year that Europe has gone too far. And on the same Monday, von der Leyen herself made it clear where her policies would aim in a second term: “One of the main priorities.” [de la UE] It has to be competitiveness and the other is security in the broadest sense.”

Both had emerged in the last few months. Last autumn, the President of the Commission herself commissioned the former President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi, a figure with little controversy in the economic field in Europe, to write a report on how competitiveness in Europe can be improved. And she herself made it clear this Saturday in Munich that she cares about security, including defense policy and the production of ammunition and weapons, when she announced that if her office was extended, she would appoint a commissioner for the newly created department would .

What is uncertain is how to achieve the balance between these two new priorities and the climate change policies that have characterized the period 2019-2024. To develop it in the European Parliament, it relied on the historic coalition that has governed the EU for decades (conservatives, socialists and greener liberals). But polls suggest that her party, the European People's Party, may now have the opportunity to form a more right-leaning coalition with the Liberals and the European Conservatives and Reformists Group, which includes the Italian prime minister's party, the ultra-conservatives , is located Giorgia Meloni, who courted von der Leyen, or the Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala. This step would in fact be a historic movement in the EU, whose executive body has always been led by the broad coalition of the center, whose actions a priori lack any ideology.

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