One of the best hitters in free agency reached an agreement overnight to be a center fielder Cody Bellinger has agreed to a three-year contract worth $80 million per year with the Cubs ESPN's Jeff Passan. According to Passan, the deal includes opt-outs after the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Passan adds that the deal is slightly advanced with Bellinger making $30 million in 2024 and 2025 and a salary of $20 million in 2026 receives.
Bellinger returns to the Cubs after signing a one-year deal with the club last winter and delivering an excellent platform campaign. In 556 plate appearances, the 28-year-old hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases while splitting time between center field and first base for Chicago. That performance earned Bellinger a Silver Slugger Award and a top-10 finish in the NL MVP voting and seemingly set him up to cash in on a big contract this winter. MLBTR ranked Bellinger as the second-best free agent in this year's class, behind only one two-way superstar Shohei Ohtanipredicts a 12-year, $264 million contract for the outfielder in our annual list of the top 50 MLB free agents.
It turns out that prediction ended up well above the point where Bellinger ultimately signed. While Bellinger entered the winter with numerous big-market clubs apparently in the running for his services, including the Giants, Yankees and Blue Jays, as the month of December progressed, each pivoted in a different direction: San Francisco was named a KBO star Young Hoo Lee to the patrol center, Juan Soto was sent to the Bronx to fill the left-handed hole in their outfield mix, and the Blue Jays changed course after missing out on Shohei Ohtani, instead focusing on smaller deals for players like Kevin Kiermaier And Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That left Bellinger with few clear suitors other than the incumbent Cubs, although his free agency continued into spring training as his camp held out for a long-term deal while the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer remained steadfast in their patience stayed. Ultimately, Chicago was rewarded for its patience, as the club will retain Bellinger's services for at least the 2024 season on a relatively cheap contract, similar to the three-year, $105 million deal with fellow forward Boras Corporation Carlos Correa signed with the Twins two offseasons ago.
A number of factors beyond the relatively small number of suitors likely contributed to Bellinger opting for a short-term deal. Although he excelled in 2023, the slugger struggled greatly in the 2021 and 2022 seasons as he battled shoulder issues and a broken fibula. Although he managed to rack up 900 plate appearances over the two seasons, he hit a paltry .193/.256/.355 during that time, a far cry from the career slash line of .273/.364/.567 that he achieved The 2021 season earned him Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in 2017 and 2019.
While Bellinger's strong and healthy 2023 campaign certainly helped assuage the concerns raised by his dismal campaigns in the previous two seasons, a look at his advanced metrics reveals cause for concern that the 28-year-old's 2023 campaign may not be is completely sustainable. While Bellinger's career-best batting average last season was bolstered by a career-low 15.6% strikeout rate, it was also bolstered by a .319 BABIP, which was off his career mark of .277 entering the 2023 season exceeded by more than 40 points.
This leap in good ball luck was achieved despite the unusually poor contact quality of the peripheral devices. According to Statcast, Bellinger's average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit percentage were well below average, ranking in the 22nd, 27th and 10th percentile of qualified major league players, respectively. Combined, these peripheral numbers resulted in Bellinger having a roughly league-average xwOBA of just .330 last year, 40 points below his excellent wOBA of .370. Given his pronounced struggles over the last few seasons and the worrying constraints underlying his return to form in 2023, it's not a complete surprise that Bellinger would take a short-term opt-out deal that preserves flexibility, rather than one long-term deal that maximizes the guarantee.
A contract like this could give Bellinger a much more significant payday in the future. As MLBTR's Steve Adams recently noted in his look at the possibility of a short-term deal for Bellinger, the slugger is unusually young for a free agent and therefore may be a great fit for a short-term deal. If Bellinger can maintain similar levels of production to his 2023 surge, he is close to getting out of his remaining two years and $50 million on his contract and heading back to free agency, where he would market his 29-year-old campaign and be unaffected by the qualifying offer the Cubs extended to Bellinger this winter.
There's more to come…