Lucknow, India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party will remain in power in India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, according to early election results released Thursday.
The victory of Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, marks the first time in more than three decades that voters have returned an incumbent bloc to power in Uttar Pradesh, a state of about 240 million people. This further solidifies the rise of Yogi Adityanath, a hardline Hindu monk who has been the state’s chief minister for five years and is increasingly seen as a potential successor to Mr. Modi.
Crowds of BJP supporters began arriving at the party’s headquarters in Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh, even before the results began to come in. The mood was jubilant, with young people erupting in applause and cheering as the TV presenters counted the seats on the big screen. By evening, the BJP was in the lead with 253 seats out of 403 seats in Uttar Pradesh, down about 60 seats from 2017 but still a comfortable margin for government formation.
“I am so happy that the BJP is winning,” said Arpit Mishra, a 19-year-old party worker, wearing a crisp floral jacket and a party-colored saffron scarf wrapped around his knuckles.
“They will give a boost to Hindutva,” he said, referring to the party’s vision of rebuilding India along purely Hindu lines. “Our lives as Hindus will change.”
Thursday also released results from four other Indian states that voted in the past month, suggesting that India’s opposition politics could be undergoing major changes. In particular, the Indian National Congress Party, which has been in power for much of India’s history since its independence from Britain in 1947, seems to have continued to decline rapidly.
Initial results showed that the Congress was losing in Punjab, one of the few states where it was still in power, and lagging behind the BJP in smaller races in the smaller states of Goa and Uttarakhand. The Aam Aadmi Party, which controls Delhi, had a significant advantage in the Punjab, making it more likely that it would be the first of India’s smaller regional parties to gain control of a second state.
Many regional parties are trying to look not only to Congress but also to Mr. Modi, hoping to put up a fight in the 2024 general election. Analysts say a victory in Punjab will give Aam Aadmi, whose name means “common man”, an advantage over other opposition blocs.
However, although Mr. Modi’s party has occasionally fought strong regional parties in state and general elections, consolidating any of them into the proper opposition to challenge Mr. Modi’s power in India will not be easy and fast. And the Congress, the largest opposition party with a national presence, has found itself increasingly vulnerable.
Celebrating with a crowd of supporters, Arvind Kejriwal, head of Aam Adami’s party, listed all the big names in Punjab that he said were toppled by his party’s candidates. According to Mr. Kejriwal, Charanjit Singh Channi, Punjab’s chief minister in the final months of the Congress, was defeated by candidate Aam Admi, who works in a mobile phone repair shop.
“This revolution started in Delhi, now in Punjab, and this revolution will spread throughout the country,” said Mr. Kejriwal.
With exit polls earlier indicating that races in both Goa and Uttarakhand could be tight, Congressional leaders have flown to both states in recent days to try to prevent any last-minute “poaching” by the BJP, i.e. attempts convince winning candidates to switch sides. In 2017, the BJP used such tactics to form a government in Goa even though the Congress won numerous seats.
This time, prominent members of Congress gathered at a Goa hotel for what party leaders said was a birthday celebration for one of them, and his candidates were offered rooms for the night. Indian media reports say that the party sought to rally and block the BJP’s last-minute maneuvers.
“No one can lure us away, even if they try their best,” said Girish Chodankar, president of the Goa Congress. “We have taken every precaution.”
But by Thursday evening, it was clear that the BJP was winning in Uttarakhand and had enough seats in Goa to form a government with the help of a couple of independents. The BJP also led the way in the small northeastern state of Manipur.
A lot of attention during the election season was focused on the prize state of Uttar Pradesh, not only because of its size, but also because of how important it could be to the future of Indian politics.
Mr Adityanath has faced a tough fight from the opposition Samajwadi party, drawing heavy criticism for his handling of Covid-19 in Uttar Pradesh and worsening the economic downturn. During the deadly second wave of the pandemic, the state’s healthcare system collapsed due to reports of oxygen deprivation. There are often images of dead bodies on the banks of the Ganges, sacred to the Hindus.
However, analysts predicted that Mr. Adityanath would comfortably remain as chief minister even if he won by a slightly narrower margin than in 2017, further confirming the BJP’s ability to mobilize and consolidate a strong support base despite short-term difficulties.
Mr. Adityanath, who always wears a saffron-colored monastic robe in public, is promoting Mr. Modi’s vision of India as a “Hindu-first” nation with its own brand of strong politics.
Mr. Adityanath has publicly spoken out against what his supporters call “love jihad”: interfaith marriages that many Hindu nationalists claim are simply attempts by Muslim men to convert Hindu women. He also banned the slaughter of cows, which is considered sacred by many Hindus.
Mr. Adityanath built cowsheds to house the aging cattle, which were soon filled to the point that in some parts of Uttar Pradesh, destruction of crops by stray cattle became a matter of choice.
He also encouraged Hindu vigilante groups, some of which he had helped create even before he became chief minister, to enforce the ban on slaughter and watch for cases of “love jihad”. violence against Muslims.
Mr. Adityanath’s methods “could serve as a model for other states” in India, said Gilles Vernier, a political science professor at the University of Ashoka who studies Uttar Pradesh politics.
“We have seen some leaders cite Adityanath as a model – not only because of his politics, combination of religion and wealth, but also because of the strong politics he represents,” Prof Vernier said.
Karan Deep Singh reported from Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, and Mujib Mashal from New Delhi. Hari Kumar provided reporting from New Delhi.