In a U.S. presidential election that promises to be unpredictable and listless, the two favorites at the end of the Michigan primary on Tuesday, February 27, continue their march toward the nomination. But it is the respective handicaps of Donald Trump and Joe Biden that are attracting attention. While the former president has once again destroyed the Republican vote against his rival Nikki Haley, around a third of activists are against his announced coronation. As for Joe Biden, he passed a dreaded test: the electoral aftershock to the left of his unconditional support for Israel in the war in Gaza.
Joe Biden's main opponent was not Dean Phillips, who was elected to the House of Representatives from Minnesota, but the participation and blank vote, known as “uncommitted.” In Michigan, more than 300,000 people identify as Arab-Muslim. The use of blank votes has been promoted in recent weeks as a tool of protest against the American president, who refuses to call for a ceasefire in Gaza simply to provide a “humanitarian pause.” The Israeli offensive in the Palestinian enclave in response to the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 has already claimed 30,000 lives, mostly civilians.
The American media focused on this Arab-Muslim minority at the risk of neglecting the weight of other voters. As the counting continued slowly into the evening, the blank vote was below 15%. It was particularly important in Washtenaw County, where several university institutions are concentrated, and in Wayne County, home to the city of Dearborn, the heart of the Listen to Michigan movement. This is the name of the group of the local Arab-Muslim community that has been mobilizing for several weeks.
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This group's stated goal was modest enough to be easily achieved: 10,000 votes went to Joe Biden. With this margin, Donald Trump won this state against Hillary Clinton in 2016. In 2020, Joe Biden, for his part, recorded more than 150,000 votes in advance. According to the New York Times, as of midnight, when half the ballots were counted, there were more than 64,000 blank votes.
Aside from the blank vote totals, Democratic pundits watched with concern that a real behavioral change was emerging on the ground around the city of Dearborn, driven largely by voters in their 20s. The danger that opposition to Joe Biden will emerge among some of this young electorate is an important issue. From this point of view, Tuesday's result represents a simple warning without allowing any definitive conclusions to be drawn. Despite the president's age and concerns about his ability to serve a second term, Democrats demonstrated discipline.
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