Russia is the most active actor in hybrid campaigns “to the detriment of Italy and the entire West.” Espionage, cyberattacks, disinformation, destabilizing exploitation of migration flows: this is the arsenal deployed, according to the annual intelligence report presented today in the presence of the delegated security officer of the Republic, Alfredo Mantovano, the president of Copasir Lorenzo Guerini and the heads of services Elisabetta Belloni (Dis ), Giovanni Caravelli (Aise) and Mario Parente (Aisi).
Moscow has also tried to hinder Italian and European initiatives on energy diversification and the introduction of a price cap on Russian gas with propaganda “aimed at distorting the information of the general public about the development of energy prices.” The intelligence services are now focusing on the upcoming events that will trigger disinformation campaigns: the European elections in June, the Italian G7 presidency, the exit from the Silk Road.
As for the course of the conflict, the report notes that Western countries' support for Ukraine, which is fundamental to the continuation of Kiev's military efforts, continued throughout 2023, although a significant increase compared to the previous year decline was recorded. At the end of the year, total military aid from European countries exceeded that of the USA for the first time. On the other hand, the support offered by third parties to the Russian military industrial base is increasing. China has probably provided Moscow with some dual technologies, while . Other countries have instead offered direct military support: Iranian drones, North Korean ammunition
“Italy has confirmed itself as a potential target due to its central position in the Christian world, its commitment to the anti-Daesh coalition and the presence of symbolic places of Western history such as the Colosseum, which continues to be considered in the rhetoric of the territory, a target of privileged conquest in the heart of “infidel” Europe,” the report continued. For example, after the burning of a copy of the Koran in Stockholm on June 28, pro-Daesh media centers published a poster with the image of a mujahideen with a distorted face, behind which the Colosseum was depicted with the Swedish flag and the Arabic hashtag “Burn copies of the Koran and mosques bomb”.
Intelligence maintained a high level of informational attention to foreign fighters entering theaters of war at this time. In 2023, the number of those linked to Italy in various capacities increased to 149 (including 39 returnees). In addition, 77 people who potentially posed a threat to national security were expelled, including 42 Tunisians. Curious: There is also an Australian right-wing extremist among the returnees.
The Israeli-Palestinian war also sparked a “revival of jihadist propaganda, not only from an anti-Zionist perspective, but also with the aim of reigniting the conflict between Islam and the West, with the aim of spreading the threat beyond the borders of the “Conflict”. There is therefore a “real” risk that the crisis could “be a sounding board for the jihadist message, not only impacting radicalization processes, but also acting as a trigger for potential lone fighters stationed in Europe and can get them to “take action”.
In this context, the Antagonist Movement is actively involved in promoting marches and demonstrations, but also in propaganda and counter-information initiatives in an “anti-Zionist” direction within the broader framework of the “Boycott, Divest, Sanction” (BDS) campaign. , with the aim of directing public opinion towards forms of pressure against Israel.
The various international crisis scenarios, we read in the report, have also influenced the heterogeneous antagonistic world, which, starting from the theme of war, has proposed new strategies of convergence of issues and demands, in a renewed attempt to widen and condense the front of dissent. The activists therefore tried to achieve unity through U-turns at both the propaganda and the street level.
At the same time, the far-right sector “continued to try to increase the visibility and following of the more structured groups, also with a view to political accreditation with a view to future local elections”. “The issues most in focus – emphasize the 007 – were the rise in energy costs, the high cost of living and, in particular, the positions of the executive branch on foreign theaters of crisis, which are seen in the industry narrative as expressing the interests of NATO, the EU and the ' “US imperialism'”.
In line with these invectives, the intelligence service has detected “significant activism in various European countries aimed at improving relations with ultranationalist groups of the Old Continent, with the aim of establishing an 'international political front' with a clear anti-Atlantic character and pro- Russian”. In terms of proselytism strategies, the far right then showed a renewed interest in some organized, politically oriented supporters and student militancy environments.
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