CNN –
American government and intelligence officials fear that Israel is planning a ground attack into Lebanon that could be launched in late spring or early summer if diplomatic efforts to push Hezbollah back from the northern border with Israel fail, senior administration officials familiar with the matter say familiar intelligence officials say.
While a final decision from Israel is still pending, concern within the Biden administration is so high that the prospect of a raid has found its way into intelligence briefings among senior administration officials, according to a person briefed on the operation take place in early summer.
“We expect an Israeli military operation to take place in the coming months,” a senior Biden administration official said. “Not necessarily in the immediate next few weeks, but maybe later this spring. An Israeli military operation is entirely possible.”
Deadly cross-border attacks by Israel and Hezbollah have occurred daily for months, forcing tens of thousands of Lebanese and Israeli residents from their homes. Israel has fired artillery and used jets and drones to strike targets, while Hezbollah has deployed some of its vast arsenal of rockets and missiles.
While the U.S. is a key mediator in ongoing discussions about halting fighting in Gaza, the Biden administration is holding parallel talks with Israeli and Lebanese officials about creating a mile-wide buffer zone in southern Lebanon if successful. That deal would likely delay an Israeli invasion, U.S. officials believe.
“I think what Israel is doing is it is increasing this threat in the hope that there will be a negotiated agreement,” said the senior official, who has expressed differing opinions within the Israeli government about the need to go to Lebanon. heard.
“Some Israeli officials believe it is more of an attempt to create a threat that they could exploit. Others speak more of a military necessity that will arise,” the official said.
A second senior Biden administration official said there were elements within the Israeli government and military that favored a raid. There's “a growing group that says, 'Hey, let's just take a shot.' “Let’s just do it,” the senior official said, adding that any incursion could lead to a “major escalation, the extent of which we don’t even know yet.”
Since October, around 80,000 Israelis have been expelled from the north. In a statement to CNN, the Israeli Embassy in Washington wrote: “The State of Israel will not return to the pre-war status quo in which Hezbollah poses a direct and immediate military threat to its security along the Israel-Lebanon border.”
In recent days, Israel has increased its airstrikes and is bombing deeper into Lebanon. Last week, attacks occurred within 27 miles of the capital, Beirut, the furthest areas of Lebanese territory from the border since violence began immediately after the Hamas massacres in Israel on October 7.
On Monday, Israel attacked the Hezbollah stronghold of Baalbek in the northeast of the country.
“The fear is that this will become a widespread air campaign, reaching much further north into populated areas of Lebanon, and eventually a ground component as well,” another person familiar with U.S. intelligence said.
The U.S. intelligence community had “sounded the alarm bells,” the person added.
Israel's top general visited the northern border on Tuesday and said Hezbollah was “paying a heavy price” for its actions since October 7.
“It is clear that the first thing we have to do is push back the enemy. Then you create a very strong barrier,” said Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi.
The White House has assigned special envoy Amos Hochstein to lead efforts to find a diplomatic solution. Hochstein typically serves as a senior energy adviser, leveraging his experience and relationships gained in brokering a maritime deal between Israel and Lebanon on gas exploration.
Michael Brochstein/Sipa USA/AP
Amos Hochstein
“If Amos were to successfully negotiate a standoff, the likelihood of a military operation later this year would decrease significantly,” the first administration official said. If Hezbollah were pushed back about 10 kilometers, it would destroy some of the shorter-range munitions it has used against Israel, the official added.
Hochstein regularly commutes to both countries and holds talks that are complicated by the fact that the U.S. in Lebanon does not work directly with Hezbollah, which is the country's most powerful military force and is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S.
Israeli attacks in Lebanon have also hit the U.S.-backed Lebanese army so frequently that the government has ordered Israel to scale back attacks.
At a meeting in Israel earlier this month, Hochstein met with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who said: “We are ready to resolve this crisis through diplomatic agreements, but we are also prepared for any other scenario.”
Israeli officials have acknowledged that a war with Hezbollah would be far more costly and devastating for Israel than the current war with Hamas, given the size and more advanced nature of Hezbollah's arsenal.
“Israel was willing to give diplomacy a chance and hopes it will succeed,” an Israeli official told CNN. “If the problem cannot be resolved diplomatically, Israel must consider alternative means.”
There are signs of progress in negotiations to end the fighting in Gaza. It is believed that a cessation of fighting in Gaza would lead to a reduction in Hezbollah rocket fire. But Israeli officials say that won't solve the problem.
“Even if there is a temporary ceasefire in the south [with Hamas in Gaza]“We will independently increase fire in the north and continue until Hezbollah’s complete withdrawal and residents return to their homes,” Gallant said in a statement on Sunday on X.
Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images
An Israeli police officer inspects the impact crater left by a rocket fired from southern Lebanon where it landed near the entrance of Ziv Hospital in the northern Israeli city of Safed on February 14, 2024.
A deal that simply pushes Hezbollah back from the border may also not be enough for Israel, the first administration official argued. A ground attack would give Israel the chance to “cut the grass” and destroy Hezbollah’s physical infrastructure in the south, which would at least slow a future return to the border area.
If the invasion does not take place, the buffer zone would have to be filled with forces from the Lebanese Armed Forces and U.N. peacekeepers UNIFIL, the official said.
“Whatever mileage buffer is negotiated will not keep Hezbollah out forever, but will at least provide some reassurance that they will not immediately return,” they said.
Many also argued that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had an interest in escalating the fighting because an end to the conflict could mean the end of his government. When calm returns, questions about Netanyahu's failure to protect Israel on October 7 will fill the vacuum.
Ariel Tagar/USA today
Benjamin Netanyahu
“Once the war is over, its expiration date will come,” said the first senior administration official. “So he has to maintain the impression, maintain the narrative, that Israel is still in the middle of a campaign to try to fend off efforts to remove him.”
Eager to rattle sabers with Hezbollah, Israel took journalists to watch live-fire drills in the Golan Heights near Lebanon. Israeli forces demonstrated combined arms maneuvers in which tanks joined infantry troops in tearing up mud and plowing through the hills.
“I think that the majority of those responsible on both sides do not want escalation, in fact they want it [diplomatic] “A solution that allows us to de-escalate,” the second senior administration official said. “But those aren’t the ones who always win.”