Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with his confidants for the 2024 election at Gostiny Dvor in Moscow, Russia, January 31, 2024.
Maxim Shemetov | Portal
Analysts said Putin could now use his State of the Union address – an overview of the current situation in the country and Russia's goals at home and abroad – to make an announcement on Transnistria, a region in eastern Moldova that Russia has since supported the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of December 1991.
“One signpost to keep an eye on this year is whether Putin refers to Transnistria, an internationally recognized part of Moldova that has been controlled by Russia since 1992,” said Andrius Tursa, adviser for Central and Eastern Europe at the Risk consultancy Teneo, in a note about this week.
Transnistria's self-proclaimed pro-Russian authorities held a congress of senior officials on Wednesday where they called on Moscow to take measures to protect Transnistria – a region also known as Transnistria or Pridnestrovie – and its economy from an alleged threat from Moldova The aim is to reintegrate the region.
“There are social and economic pressures on Transnistria that directly contradict European principles and approaches to protecting human rights and free trade,” said the text of a resolution from the meeting, Portal reported.
The document was addressed to the Russian parliament, the Federal Assembly, and called on it to “implement measures to protect Pridnestrovie.” [Transnistria] “against the background of increasing pressure from Moldova,” reported the Tass news agency.
The application was made “taking into account the fact of permanent residence on the territory of the Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic,” officials said [the official name of Transnistria] of more than 220,000 Russian citizens and the unique positive experience of Russian peacekeeping on the Dniester, as well as the status of a guarantor and mediator in the negotiation process,” the resolution says.
The Moldovan government yesterday dismissed the statement as “propaganda”. A government spokesman said: “At this point in time we would like to say clearly: There is no risk of escalation and destabilization of the situation in the Transnistrian region of Moldova.”
“We keep a close eye on and reaffirm that the Transnistria region is linked to the goal of peace and security of Moldova. This is another propaganda event,” said spokesman Daniel Voda.
The White House said it noted the development with US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, saying on Wednesday: “Given Russia's increasingly aggressive role in Europe, we are closely monitoring Russia's actions in Transnistria and the broader situation there .”
While Transnistria's self-proclaimed authorities have made similar demands in the past, the latest request, against the backdrop of Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, is certain to “increase concerns about Moscow's broader territorial ambitions in Europe,” Tursa said in an e-mail on Tuesday. Emailed comments.
“As a result, recurring rumors about Russia's alleged plans to annex the region may be part of Moscow's attempts to heighten political tensions in Moldova ahead of crucial presidential elections in autumn 2024, which will coincide with a referendum on the desire for EU membership could take place.” he noted.
A map of Moldova, including the breakaway region of Transnistria.
Lonely Planet Images | Getty
Russia already has a small military presence in Transnistria and on Ukraine's western border. No member of the United Nations (including Russia) recognizes Transnistria's sovereignty, and all UN members consider the region to be part of Moldova, which has expressed a desire to reintegrate the region.
The latest call for help gives Russia a viable excuse to increase those numbers, although doing so would be “extremely difficult” given its landlocked location, Tursa noted.
It is likely that Russia will justify the move by saying it is acting to protect its own citizens. The same tactics were used in eastern Ukraine in support of pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, and in the case of the Russian-backed breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia. Both cases resulted in or led to war.
“Transnistria is a flashpoint for Putin's games because he can easily escalate a crisis due to the presence of Russian troops and Russian citizens there,” Ivana Stradner, a research fellow at the Washington-based think tank Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said in an email sent comments.
“Putin understands that while the West is distracted by Ukraine, the Middle East and the EU and US elections, he can escalate the Transnistria crisis through his proxies and show that the West will not protect Moldova.”
CNBC has reached out to the Kremlin for a response to the comments and is awaiting a response.
According to analysts at the Institute for War Research, the move could also be a harbinger of a referendum on joining the Russian Federation or of Russian troops not only entering but annexing Transnistria, amid speculation that Russia is occupying its “land bridge.” wants territory through part of southern Ukraine to reach Transnistria.
However, Russian forces have not yet occupied all of southern Ukraine; Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa are still in Ukrainian hands.
A woman sells candles and incense at the central market in Chisinau, Moldova on April 29, 2022.
Daniel Mihailescu | Afp | Getty Images
Similar to Ukraine, both Moldova and Georgia have pro-Western governments and want to join the EU, meaning relations with Russia remain strained.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, another former Soviet republic, there have been increasing concerns that Georgia and Moldova could be next on the list, given Putin's apparent ambition to rebuild Russia's sphere of influence and create the semblance of a Russian empire.
Any attempt by Russia to increase its military presence in Moldova could put the country in a direct collision zone with the government and armed forces of Moldova, potentially opening another front in Russia's war of expansion.