The call for help sent to Moscow by the authorities in this separatist region of Moldova has raised the specter of a Ukrainian scenario. But the reality is more nuanced.
Published on: March 1, 2024 – 10:48 p.m
6 mins
It is a narrow strip of land to the east of it Moldova, on the border with Ukraine. A region of 465,000 people, the majority of whom are predominantly Russian-speaking Eastern Slavs, with its own capital, government and currency. A self-proclaimed republic that, after a secession followed by a brief civil war in 1992, maintains ambivalent relations with the legitimate government, sometimes marked by sudden bouts of fever.
The most recent case occurred on Wednesday, February 28th. Gathered in an extraordinary congress, MPs from Transnistria called the Russian parliament to take “measures to protect” its territory in the face of “unprecedented threats of an economic, socio-humanitarian and military-political nature” from Moldova. Separatist President Vadim Krasnoselski went even further, denouncing “a policy of genocide” through economic, “physical,” legal and linguistic pressure. Russian diplomacy responded quickly, ensuring that its “priority” was to “protect” Transnistrian residents, adding that Moscow would “carefully consider” the local authorities’ request. Without further details.
That was all it took to raise the specter of a Ukrainian scenario. “The focus of the calls on protecting Transnistrian rights and freedoms is likely aimed at creating conditions for the Kremlin to apply a similar narrative to prevent 'discrimination' and 'genocide' against 'Russians' in Moldova as the one used by the Kremlin Kremlin did before and during the invasion of Ukraine”, This is how the Institute for War Research continued to developan American research center specializing in defense and foreign policy issues.
An invasion impossible in the short term
The rhetoric is indeed reminiscent of that of the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and then in 2022, with which Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine. The similarities between Moldova and Ukraine are numerous. Like Ukraine, Moldova is now a former Soviet republic led by a president who wants to bring his country closer to the European Union, but who currently has no protection – either from the EU or NATO. Like Donbass, Transnistria is populated by a Russian-speaking majority that Moscow considers “compatriots.”
The comparison ends here. Unlike in eastern Ukraine, there is no territorial continuity between the separatist enclave of Moldova and Russia. It is therefore impossible to transport troops or weapons there by land unless the Odessa region is conquered. “But opening a front here would force Russia to disperse its troops,” emphasizes Thomas Merle, doctor of political geography. As long as it is stuck in the East, it has no a priori interest in opening a new front here. »Moscow cannot count on its approximately 1,500 soldiers who have been stationed in Transnistria for 30 years as part of a so-called “peacekeeping operation”. From this perspective, a short-term invasion is unthinkable.
In particular, relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol have largely normalized. “There are cultural cooperation agreements between the two entities, recognition agreements that allow, for example, young people who start their studies at the University of Tiraspol to continue their studies at the University of Chisinau with more or less recognized diplomas.” Ultimately, pragmatism dominates.” , states Thomas Merle. “There is a form of adjustment on both sides, be it economic, political or sporting,” says Florent Parmentier, secretary general of the Political Research Center Sciences Po (Cevipof). Every day thousands of Transnistrians come to work in Chisinau. And the first club in the Moldovan football championship is Sheriff Tiraspol; It's hard to imagine that two companies that play football every Sunday could suddenly find themselves at war. »
Economic reasons
With this appeal to Russia, Tiraspol is actually trying to force Chisinau to abandon tariffs on imports from Transnistria, from which the country was previously exempt and which represent a significant loss to its economy, already weakened by the war in Ukraine. “If it can no longer trade with Ukraine as easily as before, it will be forced to turn to the European market through Moldova and thus respect its standards, which contributes to the weakening of its budget,” explains Florent Parmentier. The problem is also security, notes geography doctor Thomas Merle: “The ethnic composition of Transnistria consists of around 40% Moldovans, 35% Russians and 28% Ukrainians, which the conflict in Ukraine threatens to divide.” The appeal to Russia is a way to unite the population. »
For Moscow, which Western law firms accuse of being involved in the maneuver, the aim is to prevent Moldova from moving closer to the European Union. “For 30 years, Russia has relied on Transnistria to control all of Moldova,” notes Cevipof’s Florent Parmentier. Back in 2006, in an internationally unrecognized referendum, 97% of Transnistria's population voted to join the Russian Federation, without the latter taking any action. “Moscow has no interest in recognizing Transnistria’s independence because once it does, it will no longer have any leverage,” warns Thomas Merle.
But over time, this lever could lose its effectiveness. Transnistria, once Moldova's economic engine thanks to its industrial activity, now has a per capita GDP that is almost half that of the rest of the country, despite being one of the poorest in Europe. “If 30 years ago the Transnistrian population was certainly interested in secession on an economic level, today it is the opposite,” says Thomas Merle. The energy question still remains. The separatist enclave continues to exercise control over Moldova, supplying the country with 90% of its electricity, which the country produces with gas offered by Russia.
Despite repeated attempts at destabilization, Moldova's President Maia Sandu, a candidate for re-election next November, is determined to lead her country towards European integration. Will she succeed in taking Transnistria with her? Then we will undoubtedly have to deal with Russia.
Read alsoEuropean of the Week – Maia Sandu, the Moldovan President in the face of the Russian threat