More ammunition, more weapons production, greater investment and coordination in defense capabilities. Europe is in a state of war. EU Member States are increasing their spending in this sector and the Community Club, founded decades ago as a project to maintain peace between its partners without a military dimension, is now transforming into a model with a strong focus on defense for Protect yourself from external ones Threats in turbulent times. The path of this metamorphosis is marked by Russia's war against Ukraine, which is entering its third year and with Kiev's troops struggling due to a lack of ammunition and the paralysis of aid from the United States and the Kremlin more resilient than expected. for an increasingly resolute China; and also due to growing concerns about the possibility of losing the security umbrella of the American ally if Donald Trump returns to the White House or if Washington focuses its efforts on another of its priorities: the Asian giant. The old continent has become aware of its fragility and its lack of resources in the event of another conflict.
“The threat of war may not be immediate, but it is not impossible,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said emphatically this week to the plenary session of the European Parliament, the EU's house of democracy. She stressed that it is time for “Europe to take a step forward”. The warning from the German conservatives, who served as Germany's defense minister for more than five years, shocked many because of its crudeness, admits a senior diplomatic source. But it is another step towards a paradigm shift in a Union where some member states are already talking about a return to the reserve system (Belgium) and requiring their citizens to mentally prepare for war (Sweden).
Von der Leyen's statement is just the latest in a series of eye-catching statements warning of the danger that Russian President Vladimir Putin will attack a European country and a NATO ally in an attempt to test shared security commitments . – Article 5 – which states that an attack on a member of the Atlantic Alliance (of which Spain has been a member since 1982) is an attack against all. “Our experts assume that this could be possible within a period of five to eight years,” warned Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen assured that the hypothetical attack could happen even earlier: “That was not NATO's assessment in 2023. This is new information that is now coming to light,” he explained.
With this flood in the background, Europe is once again confirming itself. When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, European NATO allies spent $235 billion (about €216.725 million), 1.47% of GDP. In 2023, the amount increased to $347 billion (both calculated at constant 2015 prices), equivalent to 1.85% of GDP. According to the Atlantic Alliance, 380 billion or 2% are expected by 2024. Everything indicates that the path will continue to rise sharply. Today, 10 of NATO's 22 European members have exceeded the target of spending 2% of GDP on military spending (Spain is at 1.3%), and 17 are expected to do so by the end of 2024. But the alliance wants to Let This level is the floor and not the ceiling.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with Ursula von der Leyen on February 24th in Kiev. Associated Press/LaPresse (APN)
For its part, the European Union took a historic step and broke an immense taboo when Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Twenty-Seven decided to provide military support to Kiev through intergovernmental means. The EU has promised Ukraine 35.5 billion euros for military supplies. If financial support is also taken into account, total EU aid to Kiev exceeds the funds provided by the US, a Western diplomat recalls. However, it has not kept its promise to fire a million artillery shells, and that is being felt at the front, where troops are on an ammunition diet following the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in a crucial year for their survival. Russia, whose economy is focused on defensive production, receives aid from Iran and North Korea. According to EU figures, European industry has now increased its production capacity by 40%, but there is a lack of orders, it said. Companies want long-term contracts. And the Member States have not yet reached this point. Despite it.
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There is a “storm of concern,” emphasizes Carmen Claudín, senior researcher at the CIDOB Analysis Center, who mentions not only the stagnation on the front due to insufficient Western support for Ukraine or the fear of the return of the Republican Trump; also the proximity of the European elections in June, with polls predicting a rise in far-right and populist forces, many of them pro-Russian. “The murder of opponent Alexei Navalni has shown us once again who we are facing,” adds Claudín.
Strategy to deter Putin
The European Commission is currently working on another axis that shows the EU's profound metamorphosis: a new strategy for the defense industry to boost that unequal, fragmented production that it has neglected for years while trying to scrape together funds to supplement its arsenals to fill and start new projects in a time of tight budgets. This is a plan based on a shared purchasing system – as was the case with vaccines against Covid-19 or with gas – that aims to increase the use of this channel to increase orders and the supply chain to secure. Production and half of the acquisitions (in market value) are made to European companies. According to the draft document presented by this newspaper, the creation of strategic warehouses for basic components in the event of a crisis is also being considered.
The strategy marks a historic paradigm shift in the EU and even proposes that the European Investment Bank (EIB) change its lending policy to finance companies that produce arms and ammunition; and not just dual-use items such as drones or radars.
The turmoil has created a sense of urgency in the desire to take a leap towards a much more defensible Europe, to support Ukraine in the short term and, above all, to deter Russia in the medium term. Because Europe is not facing a “one-off crisis,” emphasizes William Alberque, director of strategy, arms control and technology at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The problem is Russia. And if we don’t have the resolve to deter it, it will attack again,” he says.
Putin – who is celebrating a quarter of a century in power this year and faces unopposed elections next month to stay in the Kremlin until 2030 – is a distant threat to some countries such as Italy or Spain, which find instability more present, according to the polls is it the Middle East, the Southern Neighborhood or terrorism. But it is very close to other countries such as the Baltics or Poland, which have their own history and experience with the Russian imperialist umbrella. Despite the territorial differences, everything represents a change in mentality among generations of European citizens who have never experienced war up close or ever felt the threat as immediate.
Within NATO, the official alert level has not changed. So is there a real possibility that Putin will attack outside Ukrainian territory? Luis Simón, director of the Elcano Royal Institute's Brussels office, says: “Although we cannot exclude the possibility of isolated aggression, Russia does not appear to be able to sustain a military offensive in a NATO country in the short term.” Since then, the situation has The Russian armed forces are tied up in Ukraine.” In the medium term, says the expert, it will depend on how the situation in Ukraine and the political orientation of the USA develop. “Even in the face of unfavorable developments in these areas, Russia appears to be incapable of sustaining a large-scale military offensive against a NATO country, as it will take time to restore its force structure,” adds Simón.
In addition, the accession of Finland and Sweden to the Atlantic Alliance, which now has 32 members including the two Nordic countries, strengthens the defense position of the Baltic states, and Ukraine's experience is also an example that resistance is possible, which underlines deterrence .
“If Europeans take defense seriously, Russia will not attack. “Russia attacks where it senses weakness, not where it perceives strength,” said Alberque, who was director of the NATO Center for Disarmament, Arms Control and Nonproliferation. “That is the challenge for the Europeans. “Are we ready to make a long-term effort?” he asks. “Unfortunately, Europe has neglected its defense for 30 years. To prepare public opinion, leaders must step forward, take risks and tell uncomfortable truths. Unfortunately, if Trump wins, the risk is credible,” he adds.
Nuclear arsenals
These growing and increasingly serious warnings are aimed at creating public opinion that understands the changes being sought, an allied source summarizes. The risk of a Russian attack remains very low. But it is true that if the war in Ukraine ends with a positive result, Russia would use its war economy to rebuild its armed forces. And if at the same time Trump wins and there is turbulence in East Asia that distracts Washington, then nothing can be ruled out.
This eventual victory by Trump with proposals to withdraw from commitments under NATO would lead to a very complicated debate about the nuclear umbrella for Europe. France, the only EU member state with nuclear weapons, has recently taken steps to open a debate with partners on this prospect. The United Kingdom also has nuclear weapons. Although their combined arsenals are smaller than Russia's, they add up to hundreds of nuclear warheads, which undoubtedly have deterrence capabilities.
Under what circumstances and under what conditions might London and Paris consider acting in defense of a European partner? This is a very sensitive issue that may need to be addressed urgently after the US elections in November.
Furthermore, the threat is not just a traditional attack. Putin, the great destabilizer who feeds on turmoil, has taken new initiatives to unbalance Moldova, will use the Kaliningrad enclave and the North Sea to intimidate his neighbors, says an intelligence officer from a European country, and he will reactivated at the same time as the presidential elections in Europe and the USA. Disinformation, interference and attacks on critical infrastructure are also part of this threat.
“We are at the beginning of a new, more turbulent and difficult era,” said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Rome on Saturday. “Regardless of what happens in the United States, we must increase our support for Ukraine and invest more in defense and military support. And we must assume our responsibility and continue to bundle and expand internal cooperation in the EU,” he concluded at the Congress of European Social Democrats.
Strengthening European defense requires addressing and resolving numerous dilemmas. One of them concerns defining a balance between the interest in strengthening the European industrial base, which requires orders from local producers, and the interest in urgently strengthening combat capabilities, which often leads to a preference for weapons produced in other markets . An example is the case of the Spanish armed forces, which need to replace the Harrier fighter jets of the aircraft carrier Juan Carlos I – whose service ends at the end of this decade – and which have the most logical replacement in the US F-35, according to experts.
European tensions
Another important issue will be to effectively improve the interoperability of the weapons of the different European armed forces. Fragmentation is very high, with cases as striking as the joint German-Dutch unit active for many years, where both parties use 155 caliber ammunition, but are not interchangeable due to minor production differences.
The push to take European defense to a new level will require a power struggle on several axes that can be complicated: between the Commission and the Council, between Brussels and the member states, between the EU and NATO, entities that are now collaborating strengthen.
This friction already exists. For months, the Union has been trying to implement a new special arms financing program for Ukraine with an initial package of 5 billion euros. And this time it's not just Hungary that is the blocking country. France and Germany are arguing over the soul of the strategy to be pursued in the short term, with Paris calling for European purchases and Berlin – along with other allies – for urgent purchases, in addition to this fund that gives priority to the reimbursement of bilateral supplies and non-joint acquisitions.
The warnings continue to run in the background. “Russia has taken a more aggressive stance, not only in Ukraine but against all of us,” French President Emmanuel Macron said this week. “The defeat of Russia is crucial for the security of Europe. “We must not rule out the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine,” he demanded. Macron's comment does not come out of nowhere. The possibility of an allied country officially stationing ground troops in the invaded country, be it as trainers – as the EU's security engagement project with Kiev has already shown – or for demining and military advisory tasks, seems a long way off.
In fact, the French president's statement, embedded in the so-called “strategic ambiguity” – that is, not giving clues to the enemy – triggered a cascade of statements from Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Poland and Spain that… the possibility excluded. But the same thing has happened before with the deadly material – Berlin offered helmets and sleeping bags in the early stages of the invasion and is now sending artillery and tanks – with the armored vehicles or the F-16 fighter jets that Kiev hopes to receive this year . Summer.
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