INDIANAPOLIS – And then there were four. Well, at least four.
That seems to be the general consensus among personnel executives regarding the quarterback class emerging from last week's NFL scouting combine. More specifically, as we approach the pro day circuit and in-person workouts, numerous talent evaluators believe Michigan's JJ McCarthy joins USC's Caleb Williams, LSU's Jayden Daniels and North Carolina's Drake Maye as surefire first-round draft picks are round. This despite a throwing performance at the combine that was at times uneasy for McCarthy, particularly compared to fellow potential “second-line” quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr. of Washington and Bo Nix of Oregon, both of whom (albeit for different reasons) were more fluid units had Indianapolis.
When asked for their opinion on the number of quarterbacks who now appear to be targeted in the first round, seven out of seven evaluators included McCarthy in the mix. As expected, McCarthy's 18-minute interview sessions received some positive reviews, as did his demeanor and interaction at quarterback drills, as two evaluators noted that others appeared to be drawn to him. Evaluators were also pleasantly surprised to see that he weighed 219 pounds, although there was at least some skepticism about how much of that was “real” weight, compared to the pounds gained for competition through hydration and some calorie intake were filled up.
Michigan's JJ McCarthy showed plenty of first-round potential as an NFL draft prospect at the scouting combine in Indianapolis last week. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Aside from that suspicion, the general assessment was that McCarthy showed enough at the combine to intrigue teams with his above-average arm strength and his mix of intangibles and leadership skills, enough to get him this week at his upcoming pro day at Michigan (March 22). ) can build on this ) and the list of personal visits and training sessions that he will undertake. All of this means that while the teams in the top three – or those capable of finishing in the top three – try to establish a pecking order between Williams, Daniels and Maye, the rest of the quarterback-needy teams of No. 8 (the Atlanta Falcons) and beyond must get a handle on McCarthy.
He may not be the only one in this triage process. Among the seven evaluators, three believed Penix or Nix or both could also establish themselves as first-round picks in the next seven weeks.
“There could be five [first-round QBs] or more,” said one reviewer. “It just depends on how many positions — and which positions — are still open after free agency and how everyone feels about the long-term options.”
Another reviewer added: “It's a soft [quarterback class] Next year. In terms of the experience in this class – definitely some of the experience – but also the talent, I think he's better than next year's group. In my opinion, there are a lot of things to look forward to in the future. You have to weigh up what's coming [in 2025] with the overall picture.”
In some assessments, this leads to speculation that either Penix or Nix could be selected in the first round. But both are clearly still a mystery in the midst of this process. Like McCarthy, they have very different opinions about her. Unlike McCarthy, neither age nor an expected high ceiling have an impact on her. Both will be 24 next season, both have started a lot of games and thrown a lot of passes, and both have a much clearer sense of what they can be. Conversely, McCarthy turned 21 in January and appears to still have a lot of development (and potential ceiling) ahead of him. Some of that might have been on display when he showed up at the combine at 219, rather than the low 200 some personnel departments were expecting.
The thing going for both Penix and Nix is that they looked far more solid in their throwing sessions at the combine. Although there are still rumors about Nix's arm strength, his mechanics were solid and his throwing showed the touch and accuracy that lends itself to many offenses. And he showed he could throw a deep ball, although not as effortlessly as Penix.
Penix, meanwhile, had arguably the best throwing session at the combine. He threw deep passes with modest effort and neat, tight spirals. He was also effective on intermediate passes and had solid timing despite working with unfamiliar receivers. His metrics were also fine again, especially his 10 1/2-inch hands, which probably has a lot to do with the ease and perfection of his deep balls. And while his medical condition is what it is – two shoulder and two knee surgeries – there was no indication last week that teams were concerned about the health of those repairs. Not that it went uncommented.
“[Penix] is a pure pitcher,” said a senior AFC executive. “He looked really good in that place. To broadcast [versus] When rushers come at you, they're two different things. But the medical exam would keep him out of the first round in my opinion.”
“Penix can do it,” said another reviewer. “I can definitely see Day 2.”
This particular evaluator ranked the second-string quarterbacks as McCarthy and Nix as having first-round potential.
In some ways, it sounds like the same arguments that went into the company have survived as the same arguments that came out. That's true, except for the information collected. McCarthy appears to be able to add weight to his frame and showed leadership and “alpha” while blending into his quarterback group. Despite a mediocre pitching performance, it was something to build on. Nix was solid and workmanlike, continuing to cut the figure of a player who has plenty of experience and is ready to step in sooner rather than later. And Penix showed that he could keep up with the other quarterbacks (aside from the first three who didn't practice) and performed as well or better than anyone else on the field.
In total? It's a class of four first-round picks that could grow to five or six. Now the professional days are coming.