It takes place this Tuesday (05), in the United States, Super Tuesday: the day is the most important of the previews that define the candidates who will compete in the presidential elections in November both for the Democratic Party and for the Republican Party.
The reason for its importance is simple: This year, 15 states are voting on a single day, including the two most populous, California and Texas. Consequently, the largest number of delegates will be distributed. This is the moment when candidacies are consolidated or become unviable.
In 2008, for example, the Democratic Super Tuesday had 23 states up for grabs. Barack Obama won 13, becoming the favorite in the fight that would lead him to the White House months later.
In 2016, Super Tuesday was split into two. In the Republican Party primaries, Trump performed better in the first round, winning seven of the eleven states. In the second round, in which six candidates competed, he took fifth place. In short, it's difficult to turn the tide after a candidate wins Super Tuesday.
A Super Tuesday without surprises
In 2024, however, the day will not be as exciting as usual. In the Democratic primaries, Biden is the favorite in all 15 states. For Republicans, the same applies to Donald Trump.
Still, there are expectations on both sides about what will happen. Winning Super Tuesday is one thing, but how you win also counts.
On the Democratic side, a campaign for “nonbinding” votes, a kind of zero vote, is worrying the current president.
Social movements, unions and political figures such as Congresswoman Rashida Talib describe this zero vote as a form of protest against the White House's support for Israel. In Michigan, the number of invalid votes was over 13%. More than a humiliation, the vote spells trouble for Democrats in November and potentially crucial votes that will determine the election.
On the Republican side, all eyes are on Nikki Haley. The former governor and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations promised to stay in the race until Super Tuesday, but after that, no one knows what will happen.
Haley has already stated that she will continue until there is a real fight. If she loses badly, tomorrow could effectively be the end of the Republican caucuses. Good news for Trump, who can focus on the general election. But if she does better than expected, the former president may have to deal with friendly fire for months more.
The publication of Super Tuesday results was scheduled to begin on Tuesday itself, after 10 p.m. Brazilian time. Final results, including from polls on the West Coast, should be available as early as the next morning.
Editor: Rodrigo Durão Coelho
