Over the past five months, Israel has killed thousands of Hamas militants, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and caused unprecedented destruction in the Gaza Strip.
But it still faces a dilemma that has been clear since the war began and will ultimately determine its outcome: either it can try to destroy Hamas, which would mean the almost certain death of the estimated 100 hostages still held in Gaza; or it can cut a deal that would allow the militants to win a historic victory.
Both would be painful for the Israelis. Either would likely mean an ignominious end to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's long political career. And both could be considered acceptable by Hamas, which values martyrdom.
Netanyahu denies, at least publicly, that such a dilemma exists. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and free all hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements, and said victory could come “in a few weeks.”
As long as the war continues, he can avoid early elections, which polls show would topple him from power. But it seems inevitable that at some point a choice will have to be made between the hostages and military victory.
Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins next week, or to postpone an expected Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern city where half of Gaza's population resides sought refuge.
Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, the suspected mastermind of the October 7 attack on Israel, has reason to believe that he can ultimately end the war on his terms as long as he holds the hostages.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the Museum of Tolerance in Jerusalem on Sunday, February 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg, file)
Yehya Sinwar chairs a meeting with leaders of Palestinian factions at his office in Gaza City, Wednesday, April 13, 2022. (AP Photo/Adel Hana, File)
Sinwar's Bloody Gamble
Sinwar reportedly learned fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society in the more than two decades he spent in Israeli prisons, and he discovered a chink in the armor of his militarily superior opponent.
He learned that Israel cannot tolerate the captivity of its people, especially its soldiers, and will make extraordinary efforts to bring them home. Sinwar himself was among over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in 2011 in exchange for a single captured soldier.
For Sinwar, the October 7 mass killings may have been a horrific sideshow to the main operation, in which large numbers of hostages were dragged into a vast labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, where Israel could not rescue them and where they could be used as human shields for Hamas- Serve leaders.
Once this was achieved, he had a powerful bargaining tool that could be exchanged for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including top politicians serving life sentences, and an end to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had been anticipating.
No 2,000-pound bombs could overcome the brutal logic of the strategy.
Israeli officials say the tunnels stretch for hundreds of kilometers (miles), some lying several stories underground and protected by blast doors and booby traps. Even if Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would mean the almost certain death of the hostages likely to surround them.
“The goals are quite contradictory,” said Amos Harel, a longtime military correspondent for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. “Of course you can say that it will take a year to defeat Hamas, and we are continuing to do that, but the problem is that no one can guarantee that the hostages will stay alive.”
Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of a residential building destroyed in an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, Gaza Strip, Monday, March 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)
He added that even if Israel somehow killed Sinwar and other top leaders, others would rise and replace them, as has happened in the past.
“Israel will have a really hard time winning here,” Harel said.
Since the start of the war, Israel has successfully rescued three hostages, all of whom were above ground. Israeli troops accidentally killed three hostages, and Hamas said several others were killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. More than 100 hostages were released under a ceasefire deal in exchange for Palestinians detained by Israel.
Netanyahu says military pressure will eventually lead to the release of the approximately 100 hostages and the remains of 30 other hostages still being held by Hamas.
But in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel's former top general and a member of Netanyahu's war cabinet, said anyone suggesting that the remaining hostages could be released without a ceasefire agreement was spreading “illusions.”
Demonstrators protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and demand new elections in Tel Aviv, Israel, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024, as part of recent weekly protests against his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. (AP Photo/Leo Correa, File)
It's hard to imagine Hamas releasing its most valuable human shields for a temporary ceasefire only to see Israel resume its attempt to destroy the group, and Hamas rejects the idea of its leaders capitulating and go into exile.
It's better for Sinwar to stay underground with the hostages and see if his bet pays off.
How does this end?
Netanyahu's government is under increasing pressure from the hostages' families, who fear time is running out, and the general public, who see the prisoners' return as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel's main ally, is at risk of losing re-election in November, partly because of Democrats' disagreements over the war. The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked global outrage. The war threatens to ignite further fronts in the Middle East.
There is a Hamas proposal on the table in which the hostages come back alive.
It calls for the gradual release of all prisoners in return for Israel's gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term ceasefire and reconstruction. Israel would also release hundreds of prisoners, including leading Palestinian politicians and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would almost certainly retain control of Gaza and perhaps even stage victory parades. Over time, it could recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels, and replenish its arsenals.
It would be an extremely costly victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and much of the Gaza Strip completely destroyed. Palestinians would have different opinions about whether it was all worth it.
Israeli troops move near the Gaza Strip border in southern Israel on Monday, March 4, 2024. The army is fighting Palestinian militants across the Gaza Strip in the war sparked by Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg, File)
A rare wartime poll last year showed growing support for Hamas, with over 40% of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip supporting the group.
That support would only increase if Hamas manages to lift the long-standing blockade on Gaza, said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at Crisis Group, an international think tank.
“If this leads to some serious concessions that can marginally improve life, then I think that will not only strengthen support for Hamas, but could also strengthen support for the armed resistance more broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas's proposal as “delusion,” but there is no sign the militant group is backing away from its core demands.
Israel can continue fighting – for weeks, months or years. The army can kill more fighters and destroy more tunnels, carefully avoiding areas where they believe the hostages are being held.
But at some point Netanyahu or his successor will likely have to make one of the most agonizing decisions in the country's history, or it will be left to them.
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Associated Press writer Julia Frankel in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
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