Is the Russian army already bogged down in Ukraine?

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Two weeks after the invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops seem to be bogged down in...

Irina Rybakova / Press Service of the Ukrainian Ground Forces / Handout / ReutersTwo weeks after the invasion of Ukraine began, Russian troops seem to be mired in a conflict that has lasted much longer than expected (photo illustration showing Russian tanks destroyed near Sumy March 7).

UKRAINIAN CRISIS – Lightning offensive, the Ukrainian army, defeated to such an extent that it laid down its arms, and the Russians, greeted by the population as liberators. That is how the Kremlin leadership, led by Vladimir Putin, imagined the invasion of neighboring Ukraine, which is still and always described in the national media as a peacekeeping operation.

Except that after a two-week conflict, this is not the case. And the express conquest of Crimea in 2014 seems to be far away. This time, the Western world is mobilizing to support Ukraine, many cities are fiercely resisting Russian attacks, starting from the capital Kyiv, and a huge column of armored vehicles that should end the resistance of the Ukrainian authorities is still advancing. low speed.

So much so that after the rapid Russian breakthrough of the first days – either from the Belarusian border, or in the largely pro-Russian Donbass, or from the annexed Crimea – the reports of specialists are becoming more and more capacious. “Little change” or “no change” for former military and historian Michel Goya, “labor-intensive progress” for CNN military specialist Jim Sciutto, “no way to win for the Russians” according to former US analyst Chelsea Manning.

To the point that light music begins to play: what if Russia gets bogged down in a conflict that should have dragged on?

Worst time to attack?

The first element that supports this idea has been widely discussed in recent days, including on The HuffPost: it is “thick mud”, which can be translated as “bad road weather”. The meteorological constraint, which the Russians clearly did not expect, made sure of their quick victory in the Ukraine. Only after two weeks of fighting, the spring thaw, rains and melting snow are becoming clearer and risk turning the Ukrainian plains into an insoluble quagmire.

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Similar to what the armies of Napoleon I experienced in the past during the Russian campaign or the Nazis in their unsuccessful attempt to take Moscow during the Second World War. Manufacturing Miracle Michel Goya “On the choice of the timing of the Russian offensive in the worst weather period of the year for the introduction of large mechanized forces.”

Because these conditions, already very difficult in the days of the Napoleonic cavalry, have an even worse effect on mechanical equipment. Especially if they are poorly looked after. However, as some experts note, this applies to a significant part of Russian cars. on twitterTrent Teleko, a former US Army contractor who specializes in armor maintenance, describes how some Russian vehicles cannot stand several days of downtime precisely because of their poor condition.

This is shown in the example below of a Pantsir-S1 heavy vehicle with anti-aircraft weapons, whose tires shatter when the vehicle is lifted off the mud. Lack of maintenance, which leads to a very slow advance of the Kremlin troops and which is only exacerbated by the sticky mud of the “thaw”.

Supply

Another factor explaining such a slow advance of the Russian armies is that they did not expect a campaign that could be drawn out. Thinking of meeting popular support and moving forward much faster, the troops in Moscow are running short of fuel, equipment and supplies, barely able to sustain two weeks of fighting and travel.

“As expected, Russia’s attempts to resupply ran into well-known shortcomings in the logistics of its troops. Here you can see tanker trucks that are just as full as the cars they are supposed to fill.”

Difficulties also show up in terms of the manpower available to the Russians for offensive operations. With casualties estimated by analyst Michel Goya in Le Grand Continent at 100 to 200 soldiers a day, and 2,000 to 4,000 according to US intelligence since the offensive began, one thing is for sure: the damage is far worse than expected. . If the wounded are added to this assessment, then the appeal to conscripts and reservists will thus take place at one time or another if the conflict drags on, with a loss of quality and motivation, which will necessarily be harmful to the Russian troops.

The same is true from the side of the material, where the specialized site Oryx estimates almost 1000 losses of equipment. Among them, dozens of tanks were abandoned in the hands of the Ukrainians, a dozen fighter jets were shot down and a large number of artillery pieces were destroyed. Losses that affect the Russian strike group and which again lead to delays between the need to reorganize the troops and the expectation of reinforcements.

Ukrainian resistance

But if the Russians have not yet succeeded in achieving their goals, it is also because they are facing fierce resistance from the locals. Particularly in urban areas, regular troops, reinforced by often highly experienced foreign fighters and civilian guerrillas, began to form partisan units, further complicating Russian operations.

Fighters whose ardor is also aggravated by the strategy of the enemy, which multiplies – as it slows its advance – the bombardment of cities. Up to the transformation into martyrs of the inhabitants of some megacities, in particular Karkhov and Mariupol, cut off from the world and crushed by the opposing army. Because in this urban area, the numerical and technical superiority of the Russians hardly expresses itself.

“You understand what the “liberation” of the Ukrainian people looks like…”

Moreover, those who decide to take up arms on the side of Ukraine are largely supported by the West. After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Americans made the geopolitical issue of arming Ukraine particularly clear. Up to the payment of several billion dollars a year to encourage the equipment and training of Ukrainian troops.

These foreign funds have also been used to equip themselves with “low-cost” drones, to use former Colonel Michel Goya’s phrase. At the same time, Bayraktar TB2 is produced by a private Turkish company. In Opexnews columns, we learn that these devices cost much less than those developed by Western armies. And if they can certainly be destroyed by fighters or air defense systems, then they cause very significant damage to ground personnel, in particular armored vehicles, thanks to the four missiles that they can carry. Proof of such effectiveness: the resistance of the Ukrainians when their aircraft was defeated in the first hours of the conflict.

And Western funding was not limited to the months leading up to the Russian invasion. Since the beginning of the conflict, Ukrainians have received and will continue to receive materials in large quantities. According to US military sources, on Wednesday, March 9, 17,000 anti-tank missiles and 3,700 anti-aircraft missiles were delivered. Designed largely by the shoulder-mounted launchers Ukrainian fighters carry, they are effective against armored vehicles and Russian helicopters.

Is there a big attack coming?

All of these elements mean that at the Wall Street Journal, Michael Kofman, a Russia specialist at US firm CNA, is highly critical of Russia’s strategy in Ukraine. He even explains that by believing in Putin’s plan and agreeing to bring in such large numbers of troops, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu “in short, pushed the Russian army into a declared catastrophe.”

A statement which, however, could not be valid in the days to come. Indeed, according to the same Michael Kofman, Russia’s logistical problems could have been “exaggerated” in the early days of the invasion and would be in the process of being resolved. So much so that, with forces resisting their immobility better than expected, the great offensive to cut off Kyiv from the rest of the country could accelerate dramatically in the coming days.

According to the Guardian, Nick Reynolds, an infantry combat expert at the British think tank Rusi, sums up the question for the coming days: have the Russians resupplyed enough troops to complete the encirclement of Kyiv and deliver the decisive blow? If this is so, then the misfires and jamming of the Kremlin troops could only be temporary. According to US intelligence, one thing is certain in any case: it is not the setbacks and delays in conquering Ukraine that will dampen Vladimir Putin’s ardor.

Look also at HuffPost: During the war in Ukraine, she talks about her daily life in a bomb shelter.