A poster of independent candidate Elias Jradi for Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, in Ibl Al-Saqi, in the south of the country, May 16, 2022. ALI DIA / AFP
A minor shock shook the traditional Lebanese parties in the May 15 parliamentary elections. For this first post-Thaoura election (the “revolt”), the October 2019 protest movement that demanded the resignation of political leaders accused of plunging the country into crisis, the opposition candidates represent a major breakthrough . Thirteen of them got one of the one hundred and twenty-eight seats in the next assembly, according to final results released on the morning of Tuesday, May 17.
They will enter a parliament heavily polarized between the Shia armed movement Hezbollah and their favorite enemy, the Lebanese Armed Forces (FL). Samir Geagea’s Christian right-wing party, which fought pro-Iranian Hezbollah and its weapons, is emerging as the country’s first Christian force. The demise of President Michel Aoun’s Cour patriotique libre (CPL) Christian party means Hezbollah and its allies lose the parliamentary majority they won in 2018.
“This polarization has overshadowed debates about the crisis. We played the politics of fear and withdrawal from the community. The vote became a referendum for or against Hezbollah, which made the task of the opposition more difficult,” stresses Karim Bitar, director of the Faculty of Political Science at Saint Joseph University in Beirut. Aided by an electoral system that reinforces their dominance, traditional parties have also employed patronage mechanisms, with vote-buying and sometimes pressure on voters and their rivals. According to the Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections (LADE), the election was marred by irregularities, scuffles and instances of voter intimidation.
Economic crisis
But for many Lebanese, disillusionment prevailed. Worn down by the economic and financial crisis and convinced that the election was made, a majority of the population decided to abstain. According to partial results, 41% of the population voted, down from 2018 (49%). However, expatriate mobilization in certain countries, notably the United Arab Emirates and France, has worked in favor of the opposition. The last count of the ballot boxes from abroad kept tension about the victory of some candidates until late in the evening on Monday.
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Such is the case of the unprecedented victory of two candidates on the “Together for Change” opposition list – Greek Orthodox candidate Elias Jarada and, in particular, Druze candidate Firas Hamdan – who prevailed against the Shia Hezbollah-Amal list in tandem in their stronghold in the south lebanon. Other victories smacked of revenge for the advocates of change. Political and financial oligarchy heavyweights have lost to opposition candidates such as pro-Syrian Druze leader Talal Arslan, parliament vice president Elie Ferzli and banker Marwan Kheireddine, targeted by the Pandora Papers.
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“The breakthrough of these candidates bodes well for a reformist, non-community opposition in the assembly. But there was no fundamental upheaval because the electoral law is flawed, it favors the renewal of the power class,” stresses political scientist Karim Bitar. Former director of the French-language daily L’Orient-Le Jour Michel Helou lost to Lebanese armed forces-backed candidate Camille Chamoun by 5,500 votes to 1,800 because his list had not crossed the eligibility threshold.
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“We have to form a unified bloc, otherwise we will lose our credibility, which will be a loss for all Lebanese,” warned Druze candidate Mark Daou, who won against Talal Arslan in the Aley constituency, even before the election. Alliances with MPs from the Christian party in Kataeb, who went into opposition, and with independents who broke with the traditional parties, such as Osama Saad, Neemat Frem or Michel Moawad, would be conceivable. “We need a real break with these MPs,” said Karim Bitar, who fears certain figures “will be co-opted by the traditional parties,” in a gathering polarized between Hezbollah and its opponents.
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implement reforms
Hezbollah and its allies suffer a setback. The Party of God and the Amal Party of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri certainly won all of the twenty-seven seats reserved for the Shia community. But with only 62 MPs in total for their camp, they lost their parliamentary majority. This is largely due to the decline of President Michel Aoun’s Christian party, Cour patriotique libre, which has been allied with her since 2006, winning 17 seats (up from 21 in 2018). His leader and president’s son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, failed to convince him that he was a man of change, and the Christians also made Michel Aoun pay for his alliance with Hezbollah, even if the CPL managed to let them in save the furniture,” analyzes political scientist Khaldoun Al-Sharif. Pro-Syrian candidates allied with Hezbollah have also been swept away in many constituencies.
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On Monday night, Hezbollah parliamentary bloc leader Mohammad Raad warned the FL, which has made significant progress, without naming it. “Watch your speech, your behavior and the future of your country. We accept them as opponents in Parliament, but not as shields protecting the Israelis,” he charged. Samir Geagea’s party wins 19 seats – up from fifteen in 2018 – becoming the first Christian force in the country before the CPL.
The confrontation between supporters of Samir Geagea and supporters of the Shia Tandem during the Tayyouneh events in October 2021 strengthened the Christian party. Lebanese forces have also benefited from significant support from Saudi Arabia, which returned to the Lebanese game in April after five months of open crisis with Beirut. In the FL camp, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party is holding its own, and some of its Sunni allies, like Ashraf Rifi in Tripoli, have fared well. The Sunni community, which has heavily abstained, is outspoken against the former prime ministers, particularly the head of the outgoing government, Najib Mikati.
The latter called on Monday evening for the immediate formation of a government to implement the reforms needed to end the crisis, including those called for by the International Monetary Fund. “In view of this polarization, there is a risk that the formation of a government will be blocked,” warns Karim Bitar. We must find consensus figures for the posts of Prime Minister and President of the Republic”, whose mandate ends in October.
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