NERC, a regulator that monitors the state of the country’s electrical infrastructure, says in its 2022 Summer Reliability Assessment that extreme temperatures and prolonged drought could cause the power grid to collapse. High temperatures, the agency warns, will increase electricity demand. Meanwhile, drought conditions will reduce the amount of energy available to meet these needs.
“The industry is preparing their equipment and operators for tough summer conditions. However, prolonged, extreme drought and the associated weather patterns are unusual and tend to place additional stress on power supply and demand,” said Mark Olson, manager of reliability at NERC Reviews.
On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center called for nearly the entire contiguous United States to experience above-average temperatures this summer.
The power grid is extremely sensitive and the power supply must always meet the demand for electricity, experts warn. Otherwise there may be capacity bottlenecks. A deficiency occurs when not enough electricity is generated to meet demand.
Forced power outages, also known as rolling blackouts, are initiated in these situations — which millions of Americans are risking this summer — to prevent long-term damage to the power grid.
But power grids are also vulnerable in winter. In February 2021, Texas saw its highest-ever electricity demand as residents struggled to stay warm.
To keep the power grid from collapsing under the strain, grid operators were forced to institute rolling outages when Texans needed power the most.
More than 200 people died during the power crisis, with the leading cause of death being hypothermia. A post-storm analysis released in November showed that power plants were unable to produce electricity, mainly due to natural gas problems and generators freezing.
NERC says much of North America will have adequate resources and electricity this summer, but several markets are threatened by energy emergencies.
The upper Midwest and mid-South along the Mississippi River will experience the greatest risk this summer, NERC warns, where shutdowns of old power plants and increased demand are problematic. Additionally, the region is missing a key transmission line, which was damaged by a tornado in December 2021. Texas, the West Coast and the Southwest are at increased risk.
Along with extreme weather conditions, supply chain issues and an active wildfire season will further impact reliability this summer, the assessment warns.