A few days ago there was a phone call between the Chief of the Pentagon Austin and the Russian Defense Minister Shoigu. And yesterday there were fresh signs of detente with a new phone call to find a solution to the conflict in Ukraine: this time between US Chief of Staff General Mark Milley and his Moscow counterpart Valery Gerasimov. An interview that took place four days after the first icebreaker contact between the defense ministers of both countries.
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The highest military leaders Russia and United States had been engaged in direct confrontation throughout the pre-invasion periodUkraine. The line was cut at the start of hostilities on February 24 and its reopening signals a second step towards a possible window for the start of negotiations to resolve the conflict. Although Washington seems certain of one fact: “Despite the successes of Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv, the Russians are unlikely to be repelled from the Donbass and the south of the country. And — according to a senior Pentagon official — this will mean the conflict will be long ».
However, the desire for an agreement is accompanied by a strong reaffirmation of US support for Kyiv: the Senate approved the €40 billion economic and humanitarian aid package by a very large majority (86 votes in favour, 11 against). and military for Ukraine, which was delayed last week by opposition from a lone protester, libertarian Rand Paul. On the same day, the House of Lords unanimously confirmed President Joe Biden’s appointment of the new ambassador to Kyiv: Bridget Brinkl, former head of diplomacy to Slovakia.
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Washington finances the resistance of the country attacked by Russia with its right hand, but opens the other as a sign of peace towards Moscow. News site Politico reports statements by three Pentagon officials that the US government has been resisting pressure from the Kiev government to send long-range missile systems for months. Zelensky has specifically requested three Mlrs-class modules in the list of weapons he would like to receive from the US with greater urgency. Launch units capable of hitting targets up to 165 kilometers away, and those in the Himars class go up to 500 km. The US fears that once in Ukrainian hands, the military command might decide to use them to attack the Russians on their territory and that such use could lead to an escalation of the war, with Moscow accusing Washington of the to have taken power. an active role in a direct attack on its sovereignty. In fact, the military aid that flew to Ukraine included only howitzer rocket launchers, which had a much shorter range.
And the plan presented yesterday by Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio is on the table of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. A four-point document that Moscow is unaware of at the moment, but welcomes positively. The Kremlin – spokesman Dmitry Peskov said – is unaware of the Italian plan to quickly achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine and then start peace negotiations. “Unfortunately, until now we have no news about the details of this plan – he specified -. I don’t know if it was sent through diplomatic channels. The participation of everyone who can help to reach an agreement is welcome. Nobody refuses any serious effort.”
The document at the Farnesina, in close consultation with the Palazzo Chigi, partially anticipated the Sherpas of the G7 and the Quint group (US, Germany, France, UK and Italy). It envisages a four-step path under the supervision of an International Facilitation Group (GIF): ceasefire, possible neutrality of Ukraine, territorial issues – notably Crimea and Donbass – and a new European and international security pact. At each step, the loyalty of the commitments made by the parties is tested in order to move on to the next phase.
The first step is a truce, which must be negotiated in battle. The hypothesis is that the cessation of fighting will be accompanied by surveillance mechanisms and the demilitarization of the front line to discuss the open nodes and prepare the ground for a definitive cessation of hostilities. The second step revolves around the multilateral negotiations on Ukraine’s future international status. The third point, which is hottest from a diplomatic point of view, concerns the definition of the bilateral agreement between Russia and Ukraine on territorial issues, again after international mediation. The fourth stage, on the other hand, envisages proposing a new multilateral agreement on peace and security in Europe within the framework of the neighborhood policy of the OSCE and the European Union.
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Meanwhile, Moscow appears to be helping Kyiv on the negotiating front, but there is little light on this case. Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko stated that it was not Russia that interrupted the negotiation process “frozen” by the Ukrainians and assured that “as soon as they express a desire to return to the table, our response will be positive”. Provided, he clarified, “there are things to discuss”. However, the Ukrainians remained anchored to their red line: “A ceasefire is impossible without the complete withdrawal of Russian troops,” replied presidential adviser Mikhail Podoliak. The only conciliatory signal came from the General Staff, according to which the Russians “will keep their word” when evacuating from Azovstal. Ukraine, meanwhile, is playing a parallel game for EU membership with the aim of at least gaining candidate status in June, but here too there are obstacles. Especially since Germany (and beyond) has spoken out against a faster procedure than the standard procedure.