BEIRUT (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is drawing worldwide attention. But with less global visibility, Putin is also busy promoting a Russian presence in the Middle East and Africa – an expansion that military and civilian leaders see as another, albeit less immediate, security threat in the West.
Putin’s strategy in the Middle East and Africa has been simple and successful: he seeks security alliances with autocrats, coup leaders and others who have been rejected or forgotten by the US and Europe, either because of their bloody abuses or because of the rival West. . strategic interests.
In Syria, Russia’s defense minister last month demonstrated nuclear-capable bombers and hypersonic missiles over the Mediterranean Sea as part of a security partnership in which the Kremlin is now threatening to send Syrian fighters to Ukraine.
In Sudan, the leader of the junta that seized power in the East African country forged a new economic alliance with the Kremlin, rekindling Russia’s dreams of a naval base in the Red Sea.
In Mali, the government of the latest of more than a dozen resource-rich African countries has forged security alliances with Kremlin-linked mercenaries, US officials say.
Over the past five or six years in particular, “what you’ve seen is a Russia that’s much more forward-thinking and pushing its military power farther and farther,” retired US General Philip M. Breedlove told The Associated Press.
“Russia is trying to show itself as a great power at the center of world affairs and in control of international situations,” said Breedlove, NATO’s second-in-command from 2013 to 2016 and current chairman emeritus in the Middle East. Oriental Institute think tank in Washington DC.
But with Putin’s hands already busy fighting fierce resistance from a much weaker Ukrainian army, experts see his expansionist goals in the Middle East and Africa as a potential long-term threat, not a real danger to Europe or the NATO alliance.
“It threatens NATO from below,” Christina Kausch, a European security expert at the German think tank Marshall Fund, said of the leverage Russia is getting. “The Russians felt surrounded by NATO – and now they want to surround NATO,” she said.
To achieve its strategic goals, Russia provides conventional military forces or mercenaries from among the Kremlin’s allies to protect the regimes of often rogue leaders. In return, these leaders pay Russia in several ways: money or natural resources, influence in their own affairs, and footholds for Russian militants.
These alliances help advance Putin’s ambitions to return Russia’s influence to its old Cold War frontiers.
Russia’s new security partnerships are also helping it diplomatically. When the UN General Assembly condemned Putin’s invasion of Ukraine this month, Syria joined Russia in voting against it, and many African governments that have signed security agreements with Russian mercenaries abstained.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Russia would bring recruits from Syria to fight in Ukraine. The threat was seen primarily as a scare tactic, and US officials say there has been no sign of recruits from Syria in Ukraine. Some security experts say Russian mercenaries are using Mali as a staging area for airlifts to Ukraine, but US officials have not confirmed these reports.
No matter how close the threat is, American and European leaders are paying increasing attention to Putin’s moves in the Middle East and Africa, and Russia’s growing alliance with China, as he formulates plans to protect the West from future aggression.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock said in mid-February that the West can no longer ignore the competition for influence in Africa, where China is spending billions on infrastructure projects to protect mining rights and Russia provides security through Kremlin-linked mercenaries.
“We see and understand that if we emerge from this competition as liberal democracies, then others will fill in the gaps,” Burbock said as Western diplomats focused on the Ukraine crisis in the final days before the Russian invasion.
Perhaps the most daring example of Russia demonstrating its global influence was when it sent Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Damascus last month to oversee the largest Russian military exercise in the Mediterranean since the Cold War, just when when the Russian military was preparing to attack Ukraine.
The exercise, which involved 15 warships and about 30 aircraft, was staged to demonstrate the ability of the Russian military to threaten a US carrier strike group in the Mediterranean.
The Russian Khmeimim air base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast has served as its main outpost for attacks in Syria since September 2015. Russian attacks in Syria that leveled ancient cities and sent millions of refugees to Europe have allowed the brutal government of President Bashar al-Assad to regain control of much of the country after a devastating civil war.
“The Khmeimim base is now an integral part of Russia’s defense strategy, not only in the Middle East, but throughout the world,” said Ibrahim Hamidi, a Syrian journalist and senior diplomatic editor on Syrian affairs for the London newspaper Asharq al-Awsat.
In Africa, Russia is also open to cooperation with leaders known for their anti-democratic actions and human rights violations.
On the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kremlin officials met in Moscow with an officer of the military junta that seized power in Sudan.
General Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, isolated by the West, responded warmly to Russia’s proposal for a new economic union. Upon returning home, General Dagolo announced that Sudan was ready to allow Russia to build a long-awaited naval base at Port Sudan on the Red Sea.
It is far from certain that Russia will be able to take advantage of this in the near future. The invasion of Ukraine drains its military and financial resources and exposes Russia’s military weakness, while international sanctions damage its economy.
But in the long run, a port on the Red Sea could enhance its role in the Mediterranean and Black Seas, increase Russia’s access to the Suez Canal and other high-traffic shipping lanes, and allow Russia to project forces in the Arabian and Indian Seas. Ocean.
“They can certainly create enough chaos to cause problems,” said Breedlove, a former NATO commander.
Russia’s expanding alliances involve more than just its conventional military.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, between 2015 and 2021, Russian mercenary security services have increased their presence around the world by seven times, as of last year they worked in 27 countries. The most prominent of these is the Wagner Group, which the US and EU consider a surrogate for the Russian military, but which the Kremlin denies exists.
From Libya to Madagascar, security contracts with the Wagner Group and others give Russia access to mineral resources, a foothold for deployment, and strong footholds that challenge Western influence.
In Mali, the US and Europe raised alarm in December over reports that the Wagner Group had signed a $10 million-a-month security contract with the government. Experts say Wagner took advantage of local discontent over the failure of years of French-led deployments in sub-Saharan Africa against extremist groups.
Mali denied any such deployment, but some in Mali perceived the Russians’ arrival as a blow to Mali’s colonial ruler France, who had struggled to protect them from armed extremists. They are hoping for better results from any Russian fighter jets arriving in sub-Saharan Africa. “Long live Russia!” exclaimed one person in the crowd cheering the arrival of a Russian delegation to the capital in January. “Long live the people of Mali!”
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Nickmeyer reported from Washington. Associated Press reporter Bassem Mrow reported from Beirut.