Tomorrow we officially have a 68-team NCAA tournament bracket. But before the start of qualifying Sunday, we have the Saturday of the championship. Fifteen teams will cut the number of draws, claim their conference crowns and lock in the automatic dance bet.
However, for this part, our staff will offer the top three bets on non-title games in college basketball on Saturday. This means we’re touching the Big Ten, SEC, Ivy League, AAC, and Atlantic 10 below.
Best bets on Saturday conference tournament
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matches targeted by our college basketball staff from today’s game list. Click on the team logos for one of the matches below to jump to the specific bet discussed in this article.
Indiana vs. Iowa (Big Ten Semifinals)
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Since the 12-minute mark in the second half of the game against Michigan, the Hoosiers have become the best team in the country.
I am ready to support them once again.
The Hawkeye attack was a machine. Iowa scored 112 points against the Northwest—a Big Ten tournament record—and 84 points against Rutgers. Iowa scored over 1.5 PPP in the first match and over 1.3 PPP in the second.
However, Indiana’s defense is serious. Indiana and Michigan and Illinois had PPPs below 1.00. The two teams finished fourth and fifth in the Defense Performance Conference.
What’s more, I think Indiana has a solid defensive edge. Iowa was first in the Big Ten for off-screen frequency and third for edge-of-frame frequency according to ShotQuality. Well, Indiana was ahead of the conference in SQ PPP allowed on the edge and was second in SQ PPP allowed behind the scenes.
Offensively, Trace Jackson-Davies should have no problem scoring Keegan Murray. Murray is the best hitter in the conference, but his PPP is below average (.897, 40th percentile) according to Synergy.
Moreover, I think Iowa stocks are very high right now. Early on, Iowa gets over 80% of the tickets, scoring a whopping six points. But ShotQuality predicted the last meeting between the two as a win at Iowa by just two points, with Indiana gaining over 65% of the early handle.
I don’t know who will win this game, but it will be a solid cause. Iowa is a bit overpriced in the markets anyway.
I’ll gladly take points with the Hoosiers on Saturday.
Pick: Indiana +6.5 (Play to +5)
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (SEC Semifinals)
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Every year there are a couple of teams outside of the immediate bubble picture that bet on a conference tournament to get into the mix. After yesterday’s defeat of leader Auburn, Texas A&M joined this group.
The Aggies are hovering right next to the cut line, and another upset win over Arkansas will go a long way in getting Buzz Williams’ team into the dance.
I know this will be the third A&M game in the last few days, but I think Texas A&M has underdog value again. Aggie has six here, and I have no reason to believe that they will not be right in this game until the last minutes.
The two groups split the regular season series, and even in a loss at Fayetteville, A&M drove the Razorbacks to overtime.
Keeping Jaylene Williams on the offensive will be paramount for Aggie, and if they can do that, they’ll cover that number and could very well be on their way to the SEC title game on Sunday afternoon.
Pick: Texas A&M +6
Penn vs. Yale (Ivy League semi-finals)
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In my preview of this tournament, I approved a bet on Yale to cut the nets at the end of Ivy Madness on Sunday afternoon, so I have to stay consistent and take the Bulldogs here too.
Yale played very well, winning eight of the last 10, including a nine-point victory over this Pennsylvania team.
Penn stole the first meeting between these teams, but it was largely due to a terrible night of shooting from Yale. The Bulldogs scored just 23 points in the first half and shot 3 of 19 from long range. Azar Swain and Jalen Gabbidon – two of Yale’s senior leaders – teamed up to score 1 for 11 from deep that day at Palestra.
Penn’s defense is simply not good enough to repeat this performance. If Penn’s top scorer Jordan Dingle doesn’t pull the rabbit out of his hat, Penn’s offense likely won’t be strong enough to make up for the shortcomings of the Quakers’ defense.
Yale is a more experienced and talented team. He has to get down to business and move on to the title game on Sunday.
Yale is set to face Princeton with an NCAA bid on the line, but the Tigers will face a Cornell team that has the pace and shooting to ruin those plans. I will skip the risk of the first match in favor of supporting the Bulldogs in the afternoon.
Choice: Yale University -3.5
Tulane vs. Houston (AAC Semifinals)
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Houston played casually against Cincinnati in the first round game of the AAC tournament and went into the break, facing a five-point deficit. But Calvin Sampson’s team showed what they could do in the second half, beating the Bearcats 42-24 in the last 20 minutes.
The Cougars defense held up Cincinnati with 29% from the field and 22% on 32 attempts from three. After a slow start in their first game, I expect them to come out hot against Tulane.
The Green Wave outlasted the Temple in the first round. But the Owls lost their top scorer Damian Dunn right after the break. Temple lost after that, making just 28% of his 67 field goals against 14 turnovers. However, Tulane couldn’t remove it.
Tulane is not in the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. This now lines up with the Houston offense, which is the fourth-highest offensive board in the nation.
Houston defeated Tulane by double figures in both matches this season, holding the Green Wave at 37% from the field. The Cougars will be pissed off after their low-level performance yesterday and are ready for a crushing win.
Pick: Houston -13.5 (play to -14)
Richmond vs. Dayton (A-10 semi-final)
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TO Alex Hinton
Richmond avoided three straight losses to rival VCU last night, while Dayton weathered a panic from Massachusetts.
Dayton went to Richmond last week and won by two points. A place in the A-10 Conference Finals is on the line, and I love the Flyers again.
Dayton are the top shooting team in this matchup, ranking much higher in effective field goal percentage, 2-point field goal percentage, and 3-point field goal percentage. Richmond’s defense ranks 182nd or lower in all of those categories.
The Richmond defense is ranked 120th in adjusted defensive effectiveness overall, while the Dayton defense is ranked 45th in that category.
The Flyers will also have a glass advantage at both ends of the court, especially on defense. Richmond ranks 319th in offensive rebounding percentage; Dayton ranks 26th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Dayton will have the advantage in this matchup on both ends of the court. I support the Flyers as the favorites here.