Gustavo Petro during a campaign rally in Medellín on May 20, 2022. JOAQUIN SARMIENTO (AFP)
The eternal Colombian election campaign is over. It’s been so many months that the memories of the beginning are blurring. The protagonists who were and are no longer, the alliances that never materialized, the most scandalous political divorces, the struggles, the crossed denunciations. All of this is already part of the country’s intra-political history, with more nuances from newspaper archive material than a legacy to remember. The photo that works is the one from now. A handful of polls, the last until the votes are counted, have painted the true scenario. This election with the first round next Sunday, May 29th, was a duel for a long time.
Left leader Gustavo Petro led the polls ahead of right wing candidate Fico Gutiérrez. But like a guest who crashes the party at the last minute, the enigmatic Rodolfo Hernández looms on the horizon with a decidedly populist tone. The engineer has added support until stepping on Gutiérrez’s heels, threatening a difficult not-distant possibility of reaching the second round on June 19.
Petro dominated the race from the start, by several lengths. The polls give him around 40% of voting intentions. The most optimistic calculations assume 45%. In that case, he would be five points away from winning the first round, a feat previously only achieved by Álvaro Uribe. That data puts him on the brink of victory for second. The distance he maintains from his neighbor is also important. No winner in the first round has lost in the second, having achieved a double-digit advantage Petro has over Fico. On the other hand, if the difference to the first place is less than five points, the second place always wins in the end. Everything resolves itself in this difference, but history is not an exact science and therefore anything can happen in a possible second round.
So far, only Fico has been at the start as Petro’s big rival. The centrist candidate Sergio Fajardo entered the race, blurred by the litigation between the moderates and his lack of ties to the people. He soon fell behind. This campaign should be something between two candidates. Fico has garnered the full support of the classic establishment, with the country’s entrepreneurs leading the way. Their propaganda has flooded even the most remote areas of Colombia. His easy-going personality seemed to be an asset to Petro’s solemnity. Gutiérrez was recognized by very little known to almost everyone. Victory in the right-wing primary increased his voter intent from 5% to 25%. It was thought that as popularity increased, these numbers would also increase. It was not. The candidate has remained stagnant in these first dates that he has thrown. Representing the continuity of the current government, which has very little popularity despite its efforts to distance itself from Uribism, is its great burden.
But in Latin America the element of surprise can never be ruled out. Last year’s Peruvian presidential election was won in the first round by a man in a hat and on a horse who hardly anyone in Lima had heard of. He was off the radar of the country’s elites. That man was Pedro Castillo and he eventually became President. Although they are not phenomena of equal value, a week after the election follows the shadow of Rodolfo Hernández Fico. Hernández, 77, by far the oldest candidate, was a local phenomenon in Bucaramanga, the city where he surprisingly became mayor in 2016. He didn’t even see himself as a winner, in fact he flew to New York for a medical check-up on voting day. He presented himself as what he is, a wealthy self-made builder. He embraced a speech against corruption and traditional politicians. His rivals ignored him. The polls gave him 4%, but he won.
The latest polls put him over 20%, a few points behind Fico. Hernández has toured the country presenting himself as the best option for the poor, a stiletto disputed with Petro. In a country where appearances are often kept up, Hernández is gruff and foul. He has a reputation for violence. He was suspended as mayor for attacking an opposition council. He doesn’t hesitate to name fools, scoundrels, and bastards he deems corrupt. It shocks but remains, adding an air of authenticity to a job that people assimilate with hypocrisy. His mother helps solidify this story. He’s 96 years old and has a revolver at home in case someone breaks in and robs him. He doesn’t want his son to become president, if that happens he assures he would move to Miami the next day.
In something where he plays with an advantage as he was far from the head, his rivals didn’t put much effort into attacking him. And Hernandez hides some bodies in the closet. One of his sons signed a $2 million contract with a foreign company to promote a revolutionary garbage treatment system in Bucaramanga. The payment will be initialed in a document signed in front of a notary. No other candidate has such a serious allegation in court. The matter lies with the public prosecutor’s office.
Petro even considered offering Hernández to join his candidacy a few months ago, but he scrapped the idea because he was convinced that the moment that happened, the judicial machinery would be activated to crush Hernández’s aspirations and drag her with him. However, Petro Hernández’s agents fear more than Gutiérrez in the second round. Against the second they can use the trick of change; the other is a mystery.
The last week will be full of excitement. Rumors have been circulating for the past few days that the elections may be suspended due to alleged incompetence of the registrar in charge of organizing them. A lawyer appealed against him to disqualify him, which was dismissed. The Constitution is very clear on this and ensures that they must be held on the last Sunday in May unless a natural disaster occurs. Petro has taken this threat seriously, or at least said he takes it seriously, and has called Fajardo and Hernández to a meeting for Monday to avoid “an electoral slap.” “They plan to suspend them, they plan to suspend the bodies that run the electoral regime in Colombia,” the left-wing candidate said. Leaving Fico out of the meeting clearly suggests these maneuvers are from his campaign.
The undecided have the last word. You will be charged at 15%. Petro is stagnant at around 40%, Fico and Hernández within a span of less than five points, whoever hasn’t decided at this point can make the difference. Those who haven’t finished seeing the novelty in Petro, a lifelong politician, those who see Rodolfo as a tropicalization of Donald Trump, and those who don’t believe Fico is the moderate candidate he’s made out to be spends It’s up to him to crown Petro or decide his rival for the second round.
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