Finally we have a bracket. Sunday’s NCAA Tournament Selection Committee featured 68 entries and, as usual, it was a mixed bag – some good, some dizzying.
Teams outside the NCAA Tournament have always given the selection committee a reason to eliminate them. However, I find it hard to understand how Texas A&M was eliminated in favor of at least Indiana and Notre Dame, the last two teams in the field.
A summary comparison with Indiana shows two very similar teams with Texas A&M having the upper hand in several key areas. They are better away from home and better against tournament opposition. Indiana has five losses outside of Quad 1, while Texas A&M has only two. They have the same number of Quad 1 wins, but the Aggies are slightly better. They both beat Notre Dame and lost to Wisconsin, though Indiana did it twice.
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I’m not saying that Texas A&M should go in and Indiana should go. Indiana was not the last team on the field. I’m just saying that if Indiana is in business, so is TAMU.
The committee placed Aggie as the third team after Dayton and SMU. I had them in the net and missed Rutgers. Scarlet Knights has a very odd resume so I have no problem getting them. They set the record for the lowest-ranked team in NCAA pick metrics with a NET 77th pick. The previous record was 74 at the New Mexico RRC in 1999.
I also can’t explain why Duke is in second place. The Blue Devils’ resume is mitigated by playing in a weakened ACC. They beat Gonzaga and Kentucky, which are great wins, but the Blue Devils have only six Quad 1 wins, fewer than any team in the top three spots except Arizona. They have 12 Quad 1 and 2 wins, equaling the fewest Gonzaga wins among the top 12 teams. And finally, they have four losses outside of Quad 1, which equals Wisconsin. The remaining ten teams have four such defeats combined. Duke also has the weakest overall schedule of any team in the top 12. As if the committee had just looked at them and decided they were better despite evidence to the contrary.
The SEC Tournament champion Tennessee and Texas Tech would have been better candidates for second place than Duke.
The committee faced one difficult situation with Last Four In. Those teams were, in order, Wyoming, Rutgers, Indiana, and Notre Dame. They usually connect the top two and the bottom two and put them in a bracket where they should be. In this case, that would be No. 11 and No. 12. However, since Indiana was playing Notre Dame out of conference, they traded Hooshers for Rutgers. Then, due to conflicts over trying to place these pairs, as well as other numbers 11 and 12, in places where they comply with the bracketing rules, the committee had to change the pair of seeds #11 to the pair of seeds #12. That’s why Wyoming-Indiana ranks 12th place, and Rutgers-Notre Dame – 11th.
NCAA director of media coordination and statistics David Warlock said bracketing those first four pairs was about as hard as he could remember.
I’m just happy that this season we will have a normal tournament again. Exciting games, hopefully in front of big crowds. Good luck to your team. Unless, of course, they play mine.
Check out the Palm bracket on the Bracketology hub.