The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that the world is facing a potential food crisis with soaring prices and the threat of severe hunger for millions of people as the war in Ukraine threatens supplies of staple crops.
Maximo Torero, chief economist at FAO, said food prices were already high before Russia invaded Ukraine due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. He warned that the added stress of the war could spell disaster for the global food system.
“We’ve had issues with food prices before,” he told the Guardian. “What countries are doing now is making it worse, and war is putting us in a situation where we could easily fall into a food crisis.”
Wheat prices have reached record highs in recent days, although they have declined slightly. Overall, according to FAO data, food prices have been rising since the second half of 2020 and hit an all-time high in February after prices for wheat and barley rose by nearly a third and rapeseed and sunflower oil by more than 60% during 2021. The price of urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, has more than tripled over the past year due to rising energy prices.
At least 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for 30% or more of their wheat supplies, and many developing countries in North Africa, Asia and the Middle East are among the most dependent.
Poor countries bear the brunt of rising prices. Many of the poorest countries are already facing financial difficulties, and some are facing a debt crisis amid the pandemic.
“Most of all, I fear that the conflict will continue – then we will face a situation of significant growth in food prices in poor countries that were already in extremely weak financial situations due to Covid-19,” said Torero, one of the world’s eminent experts on food and hunger. “If this is the case, the number of chronically hungry will increase significantly.”
The Covid-19 pandemic has reduced the ability of developing countries to cope. “Food systems were able to become more resilient in 2019, although they had problems at first,” Torero said. “Stocks were very high at the beginning of Covid-19, then there was an opportunity to respond to the shock. But the presence of Covid-19 for two years has weakened the resilience of food systems.”
According to the FAO, the war in Ukraine poses multiple threats to food security that will be felt around the world. Ukraine and Russia are major food exporters, so the war directly threatens the supply of staples such as wheat, corn and sunflower oil.
Only Ukraine before the war supplied 12% of world wheat and was the largest producer of sunflower oil. About two-thirds of the country’s wheat exports had already arrived before the invasion, but the rest is now on hold and farmers may not be able to continue spring planting or harvest grain in the summer.
But the crisis goes deeper: Ukraine and Russia are also big producers of fertilizer, prices of which have already skyrocketed due to high energy prices, and the war is driving energy prices even higher, further hurting the cost of agricultural production.
There is also the threat that countries will close their markets in response. The most recent food price spikes occurred in 2007-2008 and resumed in 2010-2012, driven by high energy prices and bad weather. These sudden peaks contributed to the turmoil and political upheavals that are still being felt today.
Agriculture ministers from the richest group of G7 countries met on Friday to agree on a response, urging countries to keep markets open.
Russia played its part in the crisis over a decade ago by imposing restrictions on exports, most notably in 2010 when Vladimir Putin banned all grain exports after a drought in key growing regions. If Putin were to restrict or redirect exports again – after he manipulated energy exports in the run-up to the war – it would cause serious problems in global food markets.
“Now we cannot say that prices are higher than in 2007-08, but the situation could get even worse. If the energy and fertilizer situation becomes more serious, it will be worse than in 2007-08. If you add to that the possibility of export restrictions, things get even worse,” Torero said.
“Of course, Russia can do whatever it wants with its production. If they had restricted exports, the situation would have worsened. Prices will rise even more,” he added. “We call on all countries, not only Russia, but all countries, not to impose export restrictions.”
Torero urged countries to keep food systems open and to share information on stocks, crops and food availability to try to resolve supply issues. According to him, countries that are able to produce more should do so.
“Right now, the short-term issue is affordability. We need to find ways to fill the gap [in production caused by the war],” he said. “We think the gap can be partially closed, but not 100%. Countries should also try to diversify their suppliers.”
According to him, even if the conflict is resolved quickly, the consequences will be felt for some time. A spike in fertilizer prices, for example, will have a delayed impact, lowering future crop yields as farmers start using less fertilizer now.
“These are the challenges we will see next year,” Torero said.