Three months after the start of the war against Ukraine, it can be observed that Putin’s system is overloaded, said the former Russian deputy energy minister and current Opposition Vladimir Milov on Wednesday night in Vienna. He advocated a “third front” for using the information to change perceptions of Putin’s policies in Russia. In his view, along with the military front in Ukraine and sanctions, this should slowly herald the end of the regime.
Putin Wants “Power Makes Right”
“What we are seeing now is not just a war between Russia and Ukraine. This is an attempt by Vladimir Putin to change the global order,” the politician said at an event organized by the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES) at the Diplomatic Academy in Vienna. Putin is concerned with reviving the right of the strongest and use force to make boundary changes a normal affair.
Territory cession would ‘encourage’ Putin
The Russian opposition politician rejected the view recently taken by some commentators in the West that a deal must be reached with Putin “for peace” and that he should get what he wants. Any acknowledgment of Russian territorial gains in Ukraine would be cynical. That would encourage Putin to go even further.
Sanctions are “very effective”
The opposition leader described the sanctions with which the West reacted to the war against Ukraine as “very effective”. “But we need more,” said Milow, who lives in exile in Lithuania, who also highlighted the importance of international companies leaving Russia. Putin’s system was not prepared to withstand this level of economic pressure. However, the Russian described Ukrainian resistance and the bravery of Ukrainians as the “main factor” in the hope that Putin’s attack could be repelled.
“Third Front” with information for Russians
As a large part of the Russian population is not clear about what is happening in Ukraine and lacks true information, Milov considers the opening of a “third front” against Putin to be very important. The opposition is working to change the public perception of Putin and his policies in Ukraine in Russia itself, he explained. “Sooner or later we will succeed,” he said, referring to recent shifts in Russian opinion polls. Specifically, he spoke of diminishing reliance on state-controlled television and the associated increase in social media relevance.
Not a coup, but a loss of authority
The opposition left open how Putin’s regime could end. However, he stressed that he does not believe in the possibility of a coup d’etat. “My scenario is that Putin’s authority will decline and that will likely happen quickly,” he explained. Without consequences for themselves, the representatives of the nomenklatura would first publicly question the country’s development and the population would also observe this.
Logistics destroyed in Russia
In recent days, the governor of the Kaliningrad region, Anton Alikhanov, blamed the “military special operation” for the decline in construction activities in a public conversation with Putin. Transport Minister Vitaly Savelev said the sanctions had all but destroyed logistics in Russia.
At the same time, the opposition politician stressed that saying “Putin is responsible for everything” will not be enough. Things are more complicated: “We need a self-analysis like in Germany after the Second World War,” he said.