The production of opiates (opium, morphine and heroin) may be the largest illicit economic activity in Afghanistan, according to a report prepared by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Research and Trend Analysis Division.
It is estimated that this illicit Afghan opiate economy made between $1.8 and $2.7 billion in profits in 2021.
The total value of opiates, including domestic consumption and exports, accounted for between 9.0 and 14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), exceeding the value of officially registered legal exports of goods and services (estimated at 9.0 percent of GDP in 2020).
Under US military occupation, poppy cultivation increased steadily, with an average increase of 4,000 hectares per year to 224,000 in 2020.
At the end of the 2021 annual opium growing season, the opium poppy acreage in Afghanistan was estimated at 177,000 hectares, a contraction of 47,000 hectares from the previous year.
However, potential opium yield and production was estimated at 6,800 tonnes in 2021, offset by a yield increase of 38.5 kilograms per hectare.
The opium harvest completed in July last year was the fifth consecutive year with production exceeding six thousand tons, which could be used to manufacture up to 320 tons of pure heroin.
PRECARIOUS ECONOMY, INSTABILITY, CRISIS
Afghanistan is in a constant state of crisis, with a precarious economy and general instability allowing these illicit markets to thrive.
The reduction in international aid, the loss of access to assets abroad due to the freeze of the country’s funds in US banks and the disruption in financial ties since August 2021 caused the economy to contract significantly.
They also led to growing poverty and macroeconomic instability in the country.
Up to 97 percent of the population is at risk of falling below the poverty line in an extreme situation following the Covid-19 pandemic and a series of atypical climate years with a severe drought followed by major seasonal floods. .
About 18 million Afghans, or half the population, are in urgent need of assistance, one in three is at risk of food insecurity and more than half of children under the age of five are affected by acute malnutrition.
This reduction in economic opportunity makes Afghan households even more vulnerable to engaging in illicit activities such as opium cultivation, heroin manufacture and trafficking.
Most poppy farmers live in villages with very poor infrastructure and less favorable living conditions. Poppy-growing villages also tend to have less access to public electricity grids, schools, literacy programs, and agricultural cooperatives.
In addition, opiate-producing areas have an average of 40 percent less available arable land and face longer trips to markets to sell crops and more road closures each year due to security conditions.
Other associated factors include lower income from legal farming, larger household numbers and reduced access to credit.
Although profits from opiates in Afghanistan ranged from $1.8 billion to $2.7 billion in 2021, much larger sums are piling up in illicit drug supply chains outside of Afghanistan, according to analysts.
It must be remembered that in a country that is not self-sufficient, the opium poppy has taken land away from vital food crops such as wheat.
The current shortage of dollars and other foreign currencies prevents traders from making payments, which affects the availability of imports. Food prices are rising and many Afghans face food insecurity.
DELIVERY TO BIG MARKETS
Opium produced in Afghanistan supplies heroin to major consumer markets in neighboring Europe, the Middle East, South Asia and Africa, reaching destinations as far afield as North America and Oceania.
On the other hand, the expansion of methamphetamine manufacturing in recent years has added another layer of complexity to the drug problem in Afghanistan, increasing the threat to countries in the region and beyond.
In 2019–2021, methamphetamine from Afghanistan was distributed in neighboring Iran and Pakistan, Central Asia and Transcaucasia (Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan), and parts of Europe (Czech Republic and France), Southeast Asia (Indonesia), South Asia (Sri Lanka), and Oceania ( Australia).
Similarly, Afghanistan is a major producer of cannabis resin (hashish), accounting for 18 percent of all top country of origin reports between 2015 and 2019.
Cannabis resin originating from Afghanistan has been found in neighboring regions, but also in the Middle East, Central, Eastern and Western Europe, as well as Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Recent decades of war and instability in Afghanistan have exposed the population to a variety of mental health problems, such as anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder, which are common risk factors for initiating drug use.
Many experts believe that the situation has deteriorated since the Taliban movement took power in Kabul in mid-August last year.
Although the spokesman for the radical Islamic fundamentalist armed group Zabiullah Mujahid has claimed that this entity has promised to end opium production, analysts believe they will continue to reap the economic benefits of this crop as they have in the past.
The UN estimates that the Taliban made $466 million from the opiate trade.
In early April 2022, the Interior Ministry of the Taliban government announced a decree banning the cultivation of poppies and other narcotics in Afghanistan, on a promise to eradicate drug use in the country after taking power.
The document also banned trafficking in all types of drugs, such as alcohol, heroin or hashish, as well as drug manufacturing factories. But so far there are no alternative solutions for workers whose income depends on opium cultivation.
The humanitarian and economic crisis in Afghanistan, exacerbated by the rise to power of the Taliban and decades of armed conflict, the US invasion and severe drought, drove thousands of unemployed Afghans into drug addiction.
The lack of international support and the withdrawal of many humanitarian organizations also led to the closure of most drug rehabilitation centers. But the opium problem is not unique to Afghanistan, as its sale and distribution generates much larger volumes in European and Asian countries.
Given the unstable security situation, the ongoing economic crisis and the public health emergency, the international community should urgently provide basic services to the Afghan people.
This is to promote a sustained reduction in cultivation, production and demand for illicit drugs as part of general UN assistance.
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