It was the week that everything changed. For years, security analysts and politicians have been warning of China’s rise in the Pacific. Officials representing Beijing have worked slowly and mostly quietly in the small island nations scattered across the vast Pacific – solidifying allies, funding infrastructure projects and conducting concerted personal diplomacy.
But this week Beijing picked up the pace.
The leak of a far-reaching economic and security pact revealed China hopes to commit 10 Pacific countries to an agreement that could fundamentally change the balance of power in a region that covers almost a third of the world. Now the Pacific States face a choice that will shape the region for decades to come.
“Unprecedented Marathon”
It began by announcing that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi would embark on an “extraordinary and unprecedented” trip around the Pacific from May 26 to June 4, crossing eight countries in ten days. Wang landed in the Solomon Islands on Thursday before continuing to Kiribati and Samoa on Friday; Fiji, Vanuatu, Tonga, Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste will follow next week.
Some of the countries Wang visits – like Kiribati – have been among the most difficult to visit during the pandemic as Pacific island nations, fearing the ravages of Covid on fragile health systems, have instituted some of the toughest border closures in the world and remain closed to visitors .
“To be able to do that is quite an achievement,” said Dr. George Carter, a research fellow at the Australian National University’s Department of Pacific Affairs, said the visit “surpassed any other diplomacy on optics. in the last two years”.
“To have a foreign minister travel to a country like Kiribati, which is still under international lockdown, to have a foreign minister meet with Fiamē [Naomi Mataʻafa, the new prime minister of Samoa]Not having met Australian or New Zealand ministers or leaders as Prime Minister sends big signals.”
Jonathan Pryke, director of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Island program in Sydney, said the trip was an “extraordinary and unprecedented marathon that will make many people in the West nervous. It’s not just about what the trip signals for China’s renewed engagement in the region post-Covid, but what kind of deals he will sign with his peers along the way.”
The groundbreaking ceremony for the Pacific Games 2023 stadium project takes place in Honiara. The athletics track and soccer field were built with Chinese help. Photo: Xinhua/REX/ShutterstockWang’s first stop was the Solomon Islands, which signed a controversial security deal with China last month, stoking the worst fears of Canberra and Washington, which have long been watching for signs China might establish a military base in the Pacific islands.
The China-Solomon Islands pact, which has not been made public but a draft of which has been leaked online, appears to enable such a base and allow China to “carry out ship visits, conduct logistical replenishment and stopovers and transit in the Solomon Islands,” although Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has denied that such a base is on the cards.
“That is the biggest concern of this agreement for Australia,” James Batley, Australia’s former High Commissioner for the Solomon Islands, told the Guardian last month. “It’s potentially a strategic nightmare for Australia, but it’s important for other Pacific islands for the same reason.”
But the deal between Solomon Islands and China was just the beginning. Shortly after news of Wang’s grand tour of the Pacific broke, news of the proposed regional security agreement broke.
The deal, proposed between China and 10 Pacific countries, includes everything from a free trade zone with the region to providing humanitarian and Covid relief and sending arts troops to the islands. Most worrying, however, is the vision of a much closer relationship on security issues, with China proposing involvement in police training, cybersecurity, sensitive marine mapping and better access to natural resources.
It would mean a major shift in the regional security order, putting the Pacific island nations firmly at the center of the geopolitical tug-of-war between China and the US and its allies.
“[China] has slowly increased its diplomatic and economic engagement in the Pacific region,” Carter said. “But now with the Solomon Islands, it has opened a door to another opportunity in terms of working with China.” Once the door was open, Carter said, the move for China from economic and development partner to security actor in the region was “very quick and quick”.
Australian Foreign Secretary Penny Wong exchanges gifts with Henry Puna, Secretary General of the Pacific Island Forum in Suva, Fiji. Photo: Pita Simpson/Getty ImagesTraditional partners are crawling
The proposed regional deal sent the West into turmoil. Australia’s new foreign secretary, who has been in office for less than a week after last weekend’s general election, flew to Fiji to reaffirm Australia’s commitment to the Pacific.
“What we would urge as Australia is to consider where a nation would like to be in three, five or ten years,” said Penny Wong when asked about China’s proposed deal.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who is currently on a tour of the US, said: “We firmly believe that we in the Pacific have the resources and capability to respond to any security challenges that exist and that New Zealand is ready to do so to do that.”
In a move touted as significant, it was announced Friday that Fiji would join Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), the first Pacific island nation to do so, as the US seeks to strengthen alliances with Pacific nations.
But the real question will come next week, when Wang will host a meeting of his Pacific counterparts at a summit in Suva and urge them to sign the deal. Some Pacific leaders have signaled their willingness to consider Wang’s proposal, while a senior diplomat told the Guardian some leaders had “major concerns”.
Despite this, “there remains a vacuum in this region of traditional partners — they must work extra hard to win back the hearts of the people of the Pacific,” they said.
Experts believe some countries could be affected by the Chinese deal.
dr Anna Powles, a lecturer in security studies at Massey University in New Zealand, said the deal would mean “a significant loss of strategic autonomy for the Pacific countries and for that reason Beijing is unlikely to succeed”.
“However, that does not prevent some Pacific states from pursuing bilateral versions of the agreement. We will soon learn how effective Beijing’s diplomacy in the Pacific is.”