Cisneros, backed by progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is having a rematch against Cuellar, the anti-abortion right Democrat, after she nearly lost in the 2020 primary. But, as Edgar Sandoval said, Conservative Democrats may have better luck in parts of South Texas.
However, when the FBI raided Cuellar’s home and campaign office earlier this year, the political calculation has changed. The purpose of the FBI’s investigation remains unclear, and national Republican groups are watching to see if there’s a window for who will make it out of the GOP primary.
This does not necessarily mean that Cisneros is more likely to take the Democratic seat than Cuellar. If national abortion rights organizations get involved in the race, they could provoke Republicans to play more aggressively in the county.
“Trying to actually change the political dynamic in Texas doesn’t help when national organizations come to you and declare themselves liberal and wave blue flags and say we’re going to turn things blue and flip them,” he said. Matt Engle, founder of the Lone Star Project, which provides opposition research and other support to Democratic candidates in Texas.
There is a third Democrat on the ballot for the race, so it’s entirely possible that neither Cuellar nor Cisneros will make it through Tuesday’s primary. If the race moves to the primary, there are still a few months left for the Cisneros-Cuellar primary to take place — and even more time to see what happens with the FBI investigation.
The only competitive seat in the House of Representatives
There is only one district built to be truly competitive in 2022. But we probably won’t know who’s running until the second round in May.
The incumbent for the 15th Congressional District in South Texas would be Representative Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat. However, he instead chose to run in a seat that was slightly safer for Democrats after the constituency change, leaving his current seat open.