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War in Ukraine could lead to rethinking American defense of Europe

WASHINGTON (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and his drive to disrupt the overall security order in Europe could lead to a historic shift in how Americans think about defending the continent. Depending on how far Putin goes, this could mean a US military buildup in Europe not seen since the Cold War.

The prospect of an increased US military presence in Europe is a marked turnaround from just two years ago.

In 2020, President Donald Trump ordered the withdrawal of thousands of American soldiers from Germany as part of his argument that Europeans are unworthy of allies. Just days after taking office, President Joe Biden halted the troop withdrawal before it could begin, and his administration has stressed the importance of NATO, even as Biden calls China the top long-term US security threat.

Then came the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“We are living in a new era of sustained confrontation with Russia,” says Alexander Vershbow, former US ambassador to Russia and former NATO deputy secretary general. He argues that the United States, in cooperation with NATO allies, needs to take a tougher stance in order to deal with a more threatening Russia. This is especially true in Eastern Europe, where the proximity of Russia creates a problem for the three Baltic countries, the former Soviet republics.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin flew to Europe on Tuesday for his second recent round of consultations on Ukraine at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. He will also visit two Eastern European NATO countries – Slovakia, which borders Ukraine, and Bulgaria, which does not. After meeting with NATO last month, Austin visited two other allies on the eastern flank, Poland and Lithuania.

In the past two months alone, the US presence in Europe has jumped from about 80,000 troops to about 100,000, almost the same as it was in 1997, when the United States and its NATO allies began expanding an alliance that Putin says threatens Russia must be turned back. By comparison, in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, there were 305,000 United States troops in Europe, including 224,000 in Germany alone, according to Pentagon documents. This number then steadily declined, reaching 101,000 in 2005 and around 64,000 as recently as 2020.

The addition of US troops this year has been declared temporary, but it is not certain how long it will last. These include an armored brigade of the 1st Infantry Division, totaling about 4,000 men, to Germany and a similar infantry brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division to Poland. Numerous army headquarters were also sent to Poland and Germany. Austin also deployed F-35A fighter jets to NATO’s eastern flank and Apache attack helicopters to the Baltic states.

A recent Pentagon review of its military presence around the world concluded that troop numbers and positions in Europe were about right. But in testimony before a House committee days after Putin invaded Ukraine, Mara Karlin, a senior Pentagon official who oversaw the 2021 review, said that opinion would have to be revisited.

The Pentagon needs to “make sure we have the means to deter Russia and that we can absolutely 150% say that NATO is safe,” not only in light of the Russian invasion, but in the longer term, she said on March 1.

Putin’s war in Ukraine has prompted a rethinking of regional defense needs not only by Washington, but also by some European allies, including Germany, which last month broke a long-standing policy of not exporting arms to conflict zones by sending anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. to Ukraine. Germany has also committed itself to a significant increase in the defense budget.

“A new reality,” said Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Putin not only demanded that Ukraine abandon its aspirations to join NATO, but also insisted that the alliance withdraw its forces from NATO’s eastern flank — demands that the US and NATO reject as contrary to the fundamental rights of nations to decide their foreign relations for themselves and for the interests of NATO. a basic security obligation for all members equally.

If Russia took control of all of Ukraine, it would find itself on the border of additional NATO countries, including Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. Poland and Lithuania already have a land border with the Russian enclave in Kaliningrad, the headquarters of the Russian Navy’s Baltic Fleet. There are fears that Putin may decide to play for control of the 60-mile land corridor known as the Suwalki Pass that connects Kaliningrad with Belarus.

Vershbow, a former NATO Deputy Secretary General and now a Distinguished Fellow of the Atlantic Council, recommends that the US and NATO abandon their current reliance on battalion-sized light battlegroups in Eastern Europe and instead deploy heavier, larger, more permanent forces there.

Such a move on NATO’s eastern flank is exactly what Putin calls a threat to Russia and says he won’t take anymore. He demanded a return to the agreements that existed in 1997, when the Russia-NATO Founding Act was signed.

In this document, Moscow acknowledged that NATO will continue to implement plans to invite Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic into the alliance. Notably, the document also stated that “in the foreseeable security environment” NATO would waive “an additional permanent deployment of significant combat forces on the territory of new members.”

Does this rule out a build-up of US troops in Eastern Europe? No, according to a new report from the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. It argues that the restrictions on NATO’s military presence in Eastern Europe, as described in the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, are inappropriate in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We are in new, dangerous territory – a period of sustained tension, hostilities and retaliation, and major intermittent military crises in the Euro-Atlantic region that will ebb and flow until at least the end of the 2020s, if not longer.” . says in the report.