The Atlanta Braves, the reigning World Series champions, made an epic deal on Monday, acquiring first baseman Matt Olson from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for four prospects: outfielder Christian Pace, catcher Shea Langeliers and right-handers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes. By acquiring Olson, with whom the Braves signed an eight-year extension the day after the deal, the Braves would start a domino effect in baseball. Now Freddie Freeman, who seemed like a sure bet to return to Atlanta in the offseason, may find a new home through free agency.
Where he lands may well determine the fate of fellow free agent Anthony Rizzo and New York Yankees first baseman Luke Voight. Freeman’s signing could also bring some clarity to Carlos Correa’s market situation.
Despite all the attention given to the Braves side, the Olson trademark marks the continued dismantling of the Athletics. Oakland sent right-hander Chris Bassit to the New York Mets over the weekend and is expected to send third baseman Matt Chapman and starters Frankie Montas and Sean Manea in the coming days.
We are nothing but a judgmental type, so we decided to honor the meaning of this profession by handing out grades that may or may not look silly in a few years. First, let’s rephrase the specifics of the deal:
daredevils get
Athletics receives
- OF Christian Pasch
- C Shi Langelier
- RHP Ryan Cusick
- RHP Joey Estes
And now to the gas canister.
Endurance rating: A
General managers have a tough job. You have to juggle dozens of people, egos and contracts, whether it be in your office, your club or your farm. You must deal with your owner and your manager, and you must be able to keep both happy, even though their priorities sometimes conflict. You must make decisions by contrasting emotions with logic. You must do all this with the knowledge that you will always, always be scrutinized.
Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos found himself in an unusual predicament this offseason. His team had just won an unlikely championship this way – using role players acquired from other teams at the deadline – which earned him additional praise and the benefit of storytelling doubts. People said Anthopoulos gave his players a chance. He believed in them. Sometimes that’s all it takes. What he did on time was irrational; not in the sense that the word is commonly used in this league these days. The odds were consistently against the Braves. Going for it at any level was not a drastic decision made on the basis of pure, heartless probabilistic analysis.
What was so unusual about Anthopoulos’ position was that by winning this title, he gained the goodwill he needed to make unpopular decisions. Then he dared to use it.
In this case, that meant hiring a first baseman rather than Freddie Freeman, who has been a mainstay of the franchise since his debut in 2010. Freeman, who missed the National League Most Valuable Player award by a year, will undoubtedly go down in history as the best brave man of his generation. He made five All-Star Games and won three Silver Sluggers. We now know that he ended his Atlanta career, at least the first part of it, with a championship parade.
Anthopoulos made the call while resisting the temptation to give Freeman a six-year contract. Anthopoulos (and owner of the Braves) apparently didn’t want to be on the hook because of the huge first baseman salaries in the late 30s. It didn’t matter that Freeman was the face of the franchise. It doesn’t matter that his return turned out to be a fait accompli entering winter. It didn’t matter that a group of kids got Freeman T-shirts for Christmas to celebrate winning the World Series.
For Anthopoulos, what mattered to him was the final deadline: to put his club in the best position to succeed. You might argue that this is a mistake, or at least that the baseball business should leave room for emotions. This is a reasonable position; this is definitely the more romantic option. But if you look at it through Anthopoulos’ eyes, doing what he did, letting Freeman go and trade for Olson, makes a lot of sense. The fact that Anthopoulos can now redirect the money intended for Freeman to someone, well, means that the Braves could have a higher chance of repeating as champions than if they had just won them back.
For all of this to be acceptable to Braves fans, if it was acceptable at all, two conditions had to be met. First, the Braves had to win last year’s World Series to create the aforementioned goodwill. Second, the first baseman who replaced Freeman had to be really good. Olson, as it turned out, is really good. He might even surpass Freeman moving forward.
Last season, Olson hit .271/.371/.540 (153 OPS+) with 39 home runs and 88 walks. (Freeman, for reference, hit .300/.393/.503 (133 OPS+) with 31 home runs and 85 walks.) Moreover, Olson dropped his strikeout percentage from 31.4% to 16.8%, the most in season. change of season among everyday players. This change was accompanied by a corresponding steady improvement in his contact speed: instead of connecting to 70 percent of his swings in the zone, as he had done a year earlier, he completed transactions in almost 82 percent of them. He attributed his successes partly to changing his swing, especially the angle of the bat, and partly to the use of the “little red” ball machine that the A’s used for practice.
Whatever the exact explanation for Olson’s improvements, if they prove sustainable, he will remain one of the best hitters in the game. That’s what happens when you take someone with his elite strength and zone focus and you give him the ability to make contact at an average pace in the league. Add to that Olson being a multiple Golden Glove Award winner, and the Braves now have the sort of high-profile two-way cold corner member they haven’t seen since… oh, right.
Athletics rank: B
Getting a fair price for a player of Olson’s caliber is difficult. Getting a fair price for a player of Olson’s level when the whole league knows you’re going to trade him is even more difficult. Unfortunately for the five, they ended up in the second situation. Of course they did. Familiarity is a cold comfort given the circumstances, but Front Office “A” has played the song and danced before, over two decades ago. Hell, they’re ready to do it again later this week when they trade third baseman Matt Chapman to some lucky guy.
Path A is to create a three to five run contender and then tear it down due to financial constraints. First graders, who were previously cut off from income sharing, will now receive an increasing share over the next few seasons as part of a new collective bargaining agreement. However, this is no guarantee that this will remain in place beyond 2024, as the CBA requires “A” to have a deal with the stadium.
One can only guess when and how the whole mess at the stadium will end. In the end, the first graders will find a solution, whether in Auckland or elsewhere, at their own expense or at the expense of the locals. Until then, the front office should continue to operate in this cycle. Every few years they have to trade today’s good players for a promising package that they hope can become the good players of tomorrow.
On paper, anyway, their return to Olson would appear to include four potential major leaguers. Can any of them develop into major parts like Olson in Oakland? The future is infinite, but from this point of view, the odds are in favor of no.
We’ll start with Pace, the only member of the four who has experience in the big leagues. Pace boasts an amazing defensive profile in midfield thanks to his near-elite speed, his instincts, and his well-above-average hand. It would not be an exaggeration to say that he could have won several Golden Glove awards during his career. The catch with Pace, and keep in mind he’s 23, is that he may never hit enough to move above eighth or ninth in the rankings.
Pace has the tools to be the best attacking player. He has the aforementioned speed to terrorize enemy defenses on base paths, and his brute strength is rated as above average. Alas, since 2019, he has been caught stealing more times than he has successfully stolen a bag, and his single-season career high is 12 home runs. to launch an ugly strike-to-walk ratio.
Pace’s defense gives him a wide field and will establish him as a major league player in one capacity or another for years to come. If he can use his athleticism and take advantage of his youth, he can turn into a quality two-way competitor. Otherwise, he will make many outs from all sides of the ball.
The 24-year-old Langeliers was selected ninth overall in the 2019 draft due to his high gender. He is a seasoned defender with an above-average arm and a knack for framing and blocking pitches on the ground. As with Pasha, it remains to be seen how much Langelier achieves at the major league level. He scored in more than a quarter of his plate matches between two and three A’s last season and has yet to record a batting average even above .260.
Langelier does have legitimate authority and walks decently, which gives him some leeway at the plate. He’s almost guaranteed to be at least a stunt double in the majors and has every chance of becoming something big. The Fives will most likely launch him in Triple-A, but he could be their catcher of the future, and that future could come along with the Shaun Murphy trade.
Cusick, 22, is a big right-hander who was drafted 24th overall by the Braves last summer. He played six A-ball games, posting a 2.76 ERA and an 8.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fastball is in the 95+ range and he has an erase slider that can go up to 90 mph. Provided he keeps hitting and makes some progress on his substitution, he can turn into at least a mid-spin starter. Perhaps even in the summer of 2023.
Estes, 20, was selected 487th overall in the 2019 draft. It turned out to be a find from the Atlanta Intelligence Department. He played in the Low-A last season, posting a 2.91 ERA and a 4.38 strike-to-walk ratio in 99 innings. Estes has a mid-90s fastball and a couple of secondary offerings that he offers with unusual mechanics. The movement of his hand is sharp, and he releases the ball from the bottom slot three-quarters. Odd aesthetics aside, Estes raced around the zone like a pro. This team, plus his three-pitch mix, should give him a chance to start.