Stealth omicron, a subvariant of the coronavirus that could become the next dominant strain in the US, now accounts for 39% of all cases in New Jersey and New York, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s variant tracker.
The CDC reports that BA.2 cases have doubled since the week ended March 5 and it looks set to surpass its viral cousin Omicron as the most common variant in the region.
The experts aren’t overly concerned, but they keep an eye on the tension.
Dr. Suraj Saggar, head of infectious diseases at Holy Name in Teaneck, said options and sub-options such as the stealth omicron could lead to more cases as mandates end.
“At this point, in about four weeks, this will (account for) the majority of all omicron cases in the country,” he said.
But vaccines remain effective against BA.2, experts say, and those who contract omicron also have some immunity.
“I think we’re going to see an increase in cases,” Stephanie Silvera, an infectious disease expert and professor at Montclair State University, told NJ Advance Media earlier this week. “But I don’t think we’re going to see a spike like we saw an omicron spike when we had ten thousand or more cases” every day in New Jersey.
Government officials are also looking at the rise in stealth omicron cases.
“We are closely monitoring the recent rise in global COVID cases and given both previous trends in spread and our position as an international nexus for travel and trade, we expect we will eventually see an increase in cases in New Jersey,” Gov. Phil Murphy and State Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli said in a joint statement Thursday afternoon. “We will continue to closely monitor virus activity in the state, in particular for the impact on our healthcare system.
“However, at this time, we do not anticipate the need to restore universal mandatory statewide safeguards.”
The stealth omicron, which is a genetically distinct offshoot of the omicron variant, accounts for 18% of selected cases in Garden State, according to the latest coronavirus variant report from New Jersey. This is a significant increase from less than 3% at the beginning of February.
Dr. David Sennimo, an infectious disease expert at New Jersey’s Rutgers School of Medicine, said the sampling rate shows the subvariant is spreading, but he doubts a new surge is expected in Garden State.
The stealth omicron is already circulating in Hong Kong, China and parts of Europe. It is “significantly more contagious than BA.1 (omicron),” Saggar said, but does not appear to be any more dangerous.
“Unsurprisingly, you are likely to see a small spike in cases,” he said. “It can be easy. I don’t expect it to be anywhere close to what it was with a delta or an omicron spike.”
Saggar and other experts note that other factors could contribute to growth in Europe and Asia. In China and Hong Kong, vaccination rates are low, and China is using a vaccine that is not as effective as the mRNA vaccinations used in the US.
What about those parts of the world where vaccination rates are high?
Some uptick in cases is expected as mandates for masks and other measures run out.
“Places like New Zealand, Australia and South Korea are seeing an increase in infections, but not an increase in hospitalizations and deaths,” Saggar said.
This is the key: there will be more infections, but they are likely to be mild for most patients, which will not overwhelm hospitals and other medical centers.
This is the central philosophy of the transition of the state to life with the virus.
“We are not going to nullify COVID and we are not immune to the virus,” Murphy and Persicilli said in a statement. “We expect COVID to continue to mutate, with the number of cases going up and down. The transition to endemic status continues to mean that we must all take personal responsibility to protect ourselves and our loved ones.”
Activity in the United Kingdom is also growing slightly, and throughout the pandemic, this country has been a predictor of what will happen in the United States.
But there’s nothing to worry too much about, Saggar said, even if an increase in cases is expected.
“That doesn’t mean it will necessarily be stunning,” he said.
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Spencer Kent can be contacted at [email protected].