Here’s what the increase in COVID-19 cases in Europe and Asia means for the US
The incidence of COVID-19 is on the rise in Europe and Asia. Here’s what it means for the United States.
Only Frequently Asked Questions, USA TODAY
New data released this week shows that a new variant of COVID, first identified two months ago, is spreading across the US and spreading faster in the northeast and west.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, variant BA.2 appears to be on track to become the dominant strain of COVID, which has roughly doubled every week for the past month.
BA.2 is considered by the World Health Organization as a “sub-line” of the highly transmissible omicron variant. This is a different version of omicron from the BA.1 version that was responsible for the surge that hit the northeast late last year.
It has a different genetic sequence than BA.1 and was first called the “invisible variant” because it was not easy to detect.
Worldwide infections are mainly associated with the BA.2 version of omicron. In the US, BA.2 accounted for about a quarter (23.1%) of cases in the week ending March 12, according to the CDC. This is up from 14.2% for the week ending March 5.
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How fast is BA.2 spreading in the US?
The CDC reports that BA.2 accounted for 39% of cases in New Jersey and New York in the week ending March 12, up from 25.4% the previous week. (Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are also included by the CDC in the region’s breakdown of COVID cases.)
In the Northeast (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont), BA.2 accounted for 38.6% of cases, up from 24% the previous week, according to the CDC.
In the west, including Arizona, California and Nevada, BA.2 accounts for 27.7% of cases, up from 17.1% the previous week. The CDC reports that in the upper West, including Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, BA.2 accounted for 26.2% of cases, up from 16%.
Cases of BA.2 have increased in recent weeks in the rest of the US, accounting for 12% to 20% of cases in other states in the week ending March 12.
Is BA.2 spreading faster? Is it more deadly?
According to the World Health Organization, studies have shown that BA.2 is “inherently more contagious” than omicron BA.1.
What is not yet known is whether BA.2 causes severe illness, as omicron BA.1 did, causing a rapid spike in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over the course of a month, then plummeting just as quickly.
Although omicron BA.1 was considered milder than the original strain of COVID and the delta variant, it resulted in an increase in COVID deaths in the US: 60,000 in January 2022, double the number of deaths in November, according to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and University of Minnesota Politics.
“We often don’t know until it’s too late,” said Stephanie Silvera, an infectious disease specialist at Montclair State University in Montclair, New Jersey. “It was a problem with managing these spikes. The deaths are one of the last consequences we see.”
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What impact does BA.2 have?
So far, BA.2 doesn’t seem to be making a noticeable impact. But public health officials say they are closely monitoring its spread.
Key COVID metrics such as cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to decline almost every day and fluctuate around levels last seen in July before the delta surge.
Daily recorded deaths ranged from 1,685 to 2,076 daily in March after 3,000 or more deaths per day during most of January and February.
The sharp drop in rates has led to the lifting of state mask-wearing requirements – in schools and public buildings – in what officials see as a return to normalcy.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said Thursday he expects cases to rise in the state due to spikes seen in parts of Asia and Europe. But he said he does not expect “universal statewide mandatory safeguards” to be reinstated.
But health officials aren’t sure what BA.2 will do.
“It is difficult to predict how variants of COVID-19, or any other emerging respiratory virus, will evolve over time and what their specific impacts will be,” said Dr. Tina Tan, a New Jersey state epidemiologist. “And it’s hard to predict whether a surge in BA.2 will lead to more hospitalizations or deaths at this time.”
Are vaccines and natural immunity effective against BA.2?
According to British scientists, the vaccines were just as effective against BA.2 as they were against omicron BA.1. This means that vaccines may not prevent infection, but they do help in the fight against severe illness.
If you have been infected with omicron BA.1, you may also have good protection against BA.2, according to the World Health Organization.
While re-infection is possible, studies show that BA.1 infection “provides strong protection” against BA.2 re-infection.
Hundreds of thousands of infections in New Jersey during the micromicrovirus outbreak “suggest that many residents may have some protection from BA.2,” Tan said.
What is happening in other parts of the world?
Europe and parts of Asia have seen an increase in cases over the past few weeks, but it’s not yet clear what BA.2 is to blame.
In the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland and Italy, there was an increase last week. Many European countries have begun to view the virus as part of everyday life and are moving away from a complete shutdown.
China ordered the isolation of residents of the city of Changchun, closed schools in Shanghai and urged the public not to leave Beijing over the weekend amid a new surge in cases.
Hong Kong has seen its biggest surge in cases in recent weeks after containing the spread of COVID with some of the most stringent health regulations in the world for almost two years. Hong Kong has recorded more than 700,000 cases of COVID-19 and about 4,200 deaths, most of which have occurred in the past three weeks, according to Reuters.
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Will there be other options?
The more times a virus replicates, the more likely it is to mutate into a stronger strain, as seen with delta and omicron.
Some public health experts are concerned about the latest surge in Asia and elsewhere.
“I’m more concerned that the very biomass of the virus in the places where the big omicron waves are happening now will lead to the emergence of new strains that we have not yet encountered in the US,” said Daniel Parker, an infectious disease specialist. disease expert at the University of California, Irvine. “This can certainly lead to spikes in cases like what we’ve seen with the delta and omicron.”
Contributing: Karen Weintraub
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