How Joe Gibbs film studies and analytics led commanders to

How Joe Gibbs, film studies and analytics led commanders to Carson Wentz

Ashburn, Virginia. The search for a Washington Commanders quarterback has been going on for more than 30 years, punctuated by short periods of steady play and the hope that maybe, just maybe, the X quarterback will end the search. It never happened.

This off-season, the Commanders embarked on yet another search that led them to Carson Wentz and another period of hope. The search included a meeting with former Washington Coach Joe Gibbs, a deep dive into analytics, filming at an NFL scouting facility, and calls to Wentz’s former coaches.

The search for Washington wasn’t the same as in previous years because coach Ron Rivera liked his line-up so much that he gave up a place in the salary cap and draft picks to find the right guy.

It was more aggressive than last offseason, when the Washingtons made an offer to Detroit for Matthew Stafford but couldn’t afford to be as aggressive as the Los Angeles Rams. The Commanders considered a draft trade last year to draft Justin Fields, but felt the price was too high.

But this offseason, Rivera signaled to the entire NFL world that the Commanders are open for business. They strategized and traded with the Colts — the teams traded second-round picks in 2022, with Washington also waiving a third this year and a conditional third in 2023 — to get a second overall pick from the 2016 Draft.

Wentz will be the 33rd starting quarterback for Washington since the franchise last won the Super Bowl after the 1991 season. Here is how the commanders landed it:

Meeting with Joe Gibbs

The Washington Scouts studied the current group of college quarterbacks during the season. The Commanders knew, even when they were on a four-game winning streak, this quarterback would be a priority in the offseason. But with an 11th pick in the first round and questions about the quality of this class, the team focused on finding the veteran.

Carson Wentz had 27 touchdown passes and seven steals for the Colts last season. John McCreary/USA Today Sports

In January, Rivera flew to Charlotte, North Carolina to face Gibbs, who led Washington to three Super Bowl victories in the 1980s and early 90s. Each time he won with a different quarterback. Rivera spent half a day with Gibbs, devoting up to two hours to one topic: finding a quarterback.

Gibbs told him how he made a wish list, numbering each quarterback in order of wish. Gibbs told him that he would go through the list one by one until they found their boyfriend. They talked about what Gibbs was looking for in a quarterback. Gibbs said he enjoyed Joe Theismann’s lead, but his next two Super Bowl quarterbacks were bigger, Doug Williams and Mark Raipin.

“One thing we talked about was size, so they had the opportunity to look beyond,” Rivera said. “If he’s shorter, you have to make sure he has great motor skills.”

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After this meeting, Rivera wrote down the traits he wanted: size, athletic qualities, hand talent, and quick shots. They then looked at who ticked the most boxes. While size was important, they didn’t want to lose sight of someone who wasn’t at the desired height of 6ft 3in. But if QB didn’t have height, he had to show good movement in the pocket and the ability to find and create passes.

This led them to a roster of eight quarterbacks, including Houston’s Deshawn Watson.

The first two were obvious: Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Commanders prepared for various scenarios. If they got one of those two, what would their cap look like and what actions would they need to take – now and in the future? If they had acquired a less expensive quarterback, how would they have formed a roster?

But Rogers and Wilson weren’t the right fit. Rodgers was not going to be traded, and Seattle turned down Washington’s offer of three first-round picks. Watson’s legal problems, among other things, made it impossible. Just in case, the commanders also watched the films of many other quarterbacks.

At one point, they even wondered if Andrew Luck, a retired Colt, would want to play again? It didn’t lead to anything. But whether it was a realistic scenario or Lloyd Christmas’s “So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance” scenario, they wanted to make sure the i’s were all dotted.

At some point before the merger, they called Indianapolis about Wentz and were told he was unavailable.

Then, at the plant, after talking to other teams, they learned that Wentz was now in the game.

Combine studies

As they sat in a suite at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Washington staff took another deep dive into Wentz, spending “a couple of hours,” Rivera said, watching several games and studying the various shots he made. It wasn’t the first time they’d studied it, but it had become perhaps the most strenuous activity.

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“I wouldn’t say one game [stood out] as much as impressive shots,” Rivera said. – There were some impressive vertical shots, long hash shots out of numbers, and then some of his narrow window shots on leans and outs.

They’ve already done a deep dive into his analytics. Their internal analytics showed that Wentz has been in the top 10 in many categories since he was drafted by the Eagles six years ago. According to ESPN statistics and information, during this time he is ranked 19th in the overall QBR – 12th since 2017.

In his career, Wentz is ranked 11th with 140 touchdown passes (and eighth since 2017). He’s eighth in pass attempts 20 or more yards — a key metric for a team looking to shoot more outfield — and tied for 10th in completion.

The numbers certainly don’t tell the whole story, but it’s remarkable: During Wentz’s tenure in the NFL, Washington’s overall QBR is 31st, and his 98 touchdown passes are 28th. This really speaks volumes, as Washington’s record for this stretch is 31-50.

But as they watched the games, commanders focused on Wentz’s hand, quick shots, and ability to spread the field, not to mention his movement, which remained evident even if it might have diminished from his back and knee injuries at the Eagles.

Ability

There are a lot of questions about Ventz’s game. They range from his desire to prolong the game – sometimes to the detriment of his team, to his inconsistencies with his mechanics, from his losses to his tendency to press games when his team is behind.

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Booger McFarland says Carson Wentz is only a temporary fix for “desperate” commanders.

For these reasons, not everyone believes that Wentz is a long-term solution. He threw 57 interceptions in 3,008 pass attempts. Among 10 other quarterbacks with at least 2,800 tries since Wentz entered the NFL, six have scored more picks and eight have scored more touchdowns.

But the ability is obvious. At 6’5″ and 237 pounds, Wentz can see beyond the line and has the arm strength to execute every throw. It could be down the field, it could be a slope or a shallow route that was timed. As ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen said, Wentz has the ability to attack defense at “level two and three,” areas that fit well with what Commanders offensive coordinator Scott Turner wants.

“No doubt it fits,” Bowen said. “He can throw deep breakers, tight posts, challenge vertically down the field. He can make important shots. He can stretch the game and run out of the pocket as a runner and make plays with a secondary reaction. This is vital in today’s NFL. .”

Wentz seems excited about working with Turner: “Just talking to coach Turner, just his vision of offense, the way he likes to call things and push the ball around the field and the playmakers around you. I just hear his excitement along with that. I think we are both very excited.”

conversations

During the search, Rivera felt he had received a balanced account of all aspects of Wentz. He spoke with Doug Pederson and Frank Reich, two of Wentz’s former head coaches. Both praised Wentz, praising his work ethic and saying that he wants to please people.

“It was very interesting,” Rivera said of what he heard. “When you’re talking to certain people, talking to some of the coaches he’s had in the past that I know well, and listening to what they have to say, it’s counter to what’s going on.”

The Washingtons also believed that its locker room with low-profile veterans would work well with Wentz. And Rivera noticed that after the exchange, one of the Colt captains, Darius Leonard, tweeted in support of Wentz.

Rivera said the first call he received after the deal was from Reich.

“Frank was amazing,” Rivera said. “After we made the deal, he said, ‘You’re going to love this guy… First of all, he was a good person, I want you to know that.’ I was going to contact him, but he called to congratulate me.”

After the trade, Rivera spoke again with Gibbs, who happened to be in Washington for the event. Rivera said the first thing he said to Gibbs was:

“We have our boyfriend.”