Neither a step forward nor a step back. Both at the military level and in terms of negotiations. The Ukraine conflict is the picture of the stalemate. A dangerous stalemate because instead of urging the belligerents to choose the path of understanding and compromise, one risks poisoning relations to the point where any mediation becomes impossible (just look at the speeches of Putin, Zelenskyj, Biden an) to crystallize the positions to feed the claims. Besides spending weeks and weeks on the brink of terror and bombing, while casualties multiply in both camps, increases the risk of unforeseen events and accidents, and plunges the entire international community into the psychosis of war. Even if the missiles fall only on Kyiv and the bombs only on Mariupol, Poland represents a NATO humanitarian intervention in Ukraine, the Pentagon does not rule out the nuclear risk, Macron urges Europe to prepare for a “high-intensity” war and on the other hand, the Tsar’s analyzes of the conflict and its possible prospects have the icy language of cynicism. In words, both Ukrainians and Russians say that the war will not last long: in Kyiv they believe that an agreement can be reached in ten days; while in the Kremlin they believe in the possibility of overthrowing the enemy in three weeks. In reality, these predictions reflect the belief in both realms that time is working against the enemy.
A belief that is not based on real data, but on hypotheses, if not on hopes. Moscow is confident that the starving Ukrainians will raise the white flag in the end; in Kyiv, on the other hand, they are convinced that after Russia avoided default last Wednesday when it had to pay dividends on $117 million of maturing bonds, Russia will have to service two more maturities of much larger amounts ( one of 615 million dollars on March 31st and another of two billion on April 4th) and in any case from May 25th the sanctions will block financial transfers so that it will be able to not pay and it will be one give default. However, those of Moscow and Kyiv are hopes we don’t know if they are well placed. In fact, they could be called bets rather than hopes. So nothing precludes the standoff from escalating, lasting months, and eventually becoming the resolution of a “conflict without resolution.” As happened in Korea in 1953, where true peace has not yet been achieved. Or in Vietnam, where the war lasted twenty years. But it’s one thing to have a Vietnam in Indochina, another to have it 1000 miles from Rome as the crow flies. Can Europe afford Vietnam on their doorstep? Probably not. Except that if once the bipolar balance ensured that conflicts “without solution” for us in the West poisoned regions as far-flung as Asia and Indochina, the new multi-polar balance that has yet to be established could mean that they are before ours front door. Due to the madness of those who think they can turn back the hands of history, but also the strategy of those who have all the interests, the West struggles with its contradictions and problems (see China for example). That is the real risk for us Europeans. It is no coincidence that yesterday’s phone call between Biden and Xi resulted in nothing but a flurry of words. In fact, there is one result: the war goes on.