In the past week, more infections were detected in many European countries, including Italy than in the previous week. The curve, after the decline recorded since midJanuary, began to rise again with the end of the socalled fourth wave of the epidemic.
It’s early to understand if the surge in cases is the start of a new wave. It is also very complex to understand why the infections are increasing again: according to many experts, the increase is mainly due to the relaxation of the restrictive measures decided by many governments, the consequent relaxation of the population and the spread of some subvariants of the omicron , one of which, called BA.2, is highly contagious. However, regarding the effectiveness of coronavirus vaccines, the data says it is not declining for the time being, although it will be important to continue to monitor the situation in the coming weeks.
As can be seen in the Our World in Data chart, the weekly incidence of cases has increased again in Austria, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Portugal, Belgium, Switzerland and also Italy.
The President of the Higher Institute of Health, Silvio Brusaferro, explained that the increase in infections reported in all Italian regions is due to the highest incidence in young people between 10 and 19 years old and in children up to 10 years old. The trend, said Brusaferro, clearly shows that also in Italy the epidemiological situation is deteriorating, even if “the growth of the weekly incidence presents a picture consistent with the European situation”.
This is data that must be read carefully. As it now turns out, the number of daily infections is an indicator that must be taken into account, even if it says little about a possible new emergency. In fact, being positive for the coronavirus does not mean having COVID19: most infected people, especially if they are vaccinated, have mild symptoms and do not require hospitalization. For this reason, it is more meaningful to look at the situation in the hospitals, which currently seems to be under control, as shown by the data on the incidence of intensive care admissions.
In addition to the protection guaranteed by vaccines, the low proportion of people with serious illnesses in the total number of infected people is due to the characteristics of the Omicron variant, which has been widespread in Italy since early December. A new subvariant, BA.2, has been identified in recent weeks and appears to have fairly similar characteristics: it spreads very quickly, but appears to cause significantly milder symptoms than previous variants in the majority of those who are vaccinated.
According to the most recent rapid survey commissioned by the Higher Institutes of Health (ISS) using data from swabs sequenced March 7, the omicron variant has an estimated prevalence of 99.9 percent, with 44.1 percent attributed to subvariant BA.2 are represented in almost all regions. A total of 117 regional laboratories that sequenced 1984 swabs participated in the survey.
The ISS epidemiological surveillance bulletin published on Saturday confirmed, among other things, the effectiveness of vaccines, especially against severe forms of the disease: the incidence of infections, hospital admissions and deaths is significantly higher in the unvaccinated than in the protected. Efficacy is evident from the comparison between vaccinated and unvaccinated in the elderly population groups, the most vulnerable.
The effectiveness of the vaccines and the less serious consequences of Omicron have allowed Italian hospitals to maintain a rather low level of pressure in intensive care units already during the fourth wave. Nothing seems to have changed: the pressure in the intensive care unit is still low, also due to the infection process in younger people, who are less at risk than older people. Again, it will be important to continue looking at the data in the coming weeks.
For all these reasons, the Italian government, like almost all other European governments, has decided to confirm the easing decided at the end of the fourth wave.
The state of emergency imposed due to the pandemic ends on March 31 and will not be extended. From April 1st, the Green Pass both the reinforced (available only if vaccinated or recovered from COVID19) and the basic (also available after a negative antigen or molecular test for the coronavirus) will no longer be mandatory for the Access to shops, hotels, public offices, post offices, banks, swimming pools, as well as for access to a bar or restaurant and for al fresco dining.
Until April 30, the reinforced will continue to be mandatory for access to indoor restaurants and bars, wellness centers, arcades, discos, congresses and indoor sporting events and competitions. The basic green pass is required for sporting and nonsporting events that take place outdoors up to April 30th. From May 1st, any green pass requirement will be permanently eliminated, as will any mask requirement.