The global impact of Russian war against Ukraine They have effectively become a continuation of the challenges of the Covid19 pandemic that have hit the world and created common challenges for countries to face.
The world is beginning to see the domino effect of problems related to raw materials and the supply chain following the Russian invasion in a similar pattern to the pandemic a few years ago. This new instability is creating new realities for many countries, with social, economic and security problems that add to fundamental problems such as food supply.
The invasion of Ukraine also has implications for world politics, while there is a clear stance of United States and allies in the EU and NATO, some proUS countries have not really followed Washington’s line. This applies in particular to the gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who are looking for an opportunity to renegotiate their positions with the Biden government.
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The ensuing oil crisis and ongoing relations with Russia provided an opportunity to send a clear message to the United States about the need to search a new common ground with the democratic administration, which these countries believe neglected their interests in the Iran nuclear deal a few years ago, the war in Yemen it underestimated its role in the region, particularly in the United Arab Emirates, with its regional peace plan and the Abrahamic Accords.
Other countries, like EgyptAt the request of the G7 ambassadors complaining in Cairo, who appeared to be reticent at the beginning of the invasion, he was forced to take a clearer stance respect for international law and the principles of the United Nations. For example, at the emergency session of the United Nations General Assembly, Egypt voted in favor of the resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Another active player is the Turkey which seemed to be in a very strong position in this crisis as a member of NATO and a strong ally of Ukraine, as well as a strategic competitor to Russia. It may also be time for Turkey to reestablish ties with the US and EU, particularly with Eastern Mediterranean countries like Greece, where they will play a pivotal role in the future Gas deliveries from the Mediterranean. This could also be one of the factors behind the recent IsraeliTurkish rapprochement.
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This is also a very interesting time for theIran which is keen to seize the moment and restore the nuclear deal in order to once again become a major player in the global oil market. However, the pressure on Russia through sanctions and isolation could have serious repercussions on areas where Russia has influence, such as the United States Syria. For a country like that JordanThe risk of destabilization or chaos should be managed as a priority, as militias and nonstate actors could play an important role in trying to use change and chaos to set up businesses in new areas.
war in Ukraine risk of procrastination and any longterm open conflict is likely to attract terrorist and criminal groups and militias operating under the guise of war. As we have seen in other scenarios, these conflicts are frequent Wars by proxy, with dynamics affecting many countries pursuing their own interests. For Russia, this could mean following the same path it has taken Afghanistan many years ago, especially as most of the countries around Russia have recently experienced signs of destabilization, increasing the risk of widening the theater of conflict and this would mean more problems for Russia along its borders.