A view of destroyed buildings and vehicles following a Russian attack on a shopping center in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 21, 2022. The Russian attack on the mall reportedly killed 8 people.
Emin Sansar | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
BRUSSELS. Russia’s nearly month-long war in Ukraine is on the verge of reaching a stalemate, a senior NATO intelligence official said Monday as Ukrainian forces prevent Russia from making progress but Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no willingness to back down.
“If we are not at an impasse, then we are rapidly approaching it,” said a NATO official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military assessments. “The reality is that neither side has superiority over the other.”
Belarus, a close ally of Russia, may soon attack Ukraine itself and is preparing to allow Russia to plant nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil, the official said. Belarus has already allowed the Russian military to use its territory to invade Ukraine.
The ominous assessment comes as President Joe Biden and world leaders prepare for Thursday’s major NATO summit here in Belgium and other high-level meetings on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
US and NATO allies are encouraged by Ukraine’s unexpectedly strong resistance and Russia’s weak military performance. But Western leaders have also warned that Putin does not appear to be serious about diplomatic talks to end the war, predicting a protracted conflict with devastating consequences for Ukrainian civilians.
A NATO spokesman said that despite the lack of significant progress over the past two weeks, Putin appeared to be stuck and unwilling to admit failure, likely ruling out the possibility of him backing down.
Pro-Russian troops ride a tank during the Ukrainian-Russian conflict on the outskirts of the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, March 20, 2022.
Alexander Ermochenko | Reuters
The Ukrainians have also “made it very clear that they will not surrender,” the official said, adding that it would likely be very difficult for Russia to maintain control of the territory it had seized in the face of “what is likely to be permanent and significant.” Ukrainian rebellion.
“So what happens when these two forces push each other in this way? The loss of life and damage will be very serious,” the NATO official said. “Neither side can win here. Neither side capitulates.”
It remains unclear to NATO whether Putin intends to pursue a “maximalist” strategy to take over all or most of Ukraine, the official said, but said Russia has clearly expanded its set of targets in recent days, including striking targets in western Ukraine. , which in the early days of the war remained almost untouched.
Amid Russia’s likely dissatisfaction with its meager record on the battlefield, Russian troops have also moved to use less selective weapons that cause more destruction and prevent civilian casualties.
“The problem with the stalemate is that it is a long and protracted struggle,” the NATO spokesman said. “Don’t they (the Russians) realize they can’t win? Possibly, but it requires a certain degree of rationality and a willingness to admit that you have not won, which at the moment there is no evidence.
Last month, voters in Belarus approved a referendum to end the country’s non-nuclear status, which many saw as a political harbinger of Russia’s allowing nuclear weapons in the country bordering Ukraine to the north. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has become Putin’s staunchest ally in the war, holding high-profile meetings with the Russian leader and allowing his country to be used as a Russian military foothold.
According to the official, NATO is now concerned that Belarusian troops might join the fight.
“The Belarusian government is preparing the environment to justify the Belarusian offensive against Ukraine and the imminent deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus,” a NATO intelligence official said.
However, the official warned that Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus was not a foregone conclusion.
“I am not telling you that tomorrow they are going to plant nuclear weapons there,” the official added. “I mean, they have taken political steps to now be able to get nuclear weapons, if such a decision is made.”
While Belarus has allowed the Russian military to use its territory for ground and air operations, including airstrikes, air operations and strikes, NATO has yet to see any convincing evidence that Belarusian troops were directly involved in the fighting in Ukraine, said official.
“Everything they are involved in at the moment,” the official said.