“Probably in his wildest dreams Vladimir Putin could have imagined something like regaining control of the former Soviet area, but in today’s situation I would rule out that he could take control of Ukraine.” March 21 of Otto e mezzo, the evening program of La7 directed by Lilli Gruber, Lucio Caracciolo, director of the geopolitical magazine Limes and frequent visitor in the living room of the former face of Tg5, is a guest: “He already has control over you particularly unfortunate part of Ukraine, namely Donbass, in addition to Crimea, but in addition to uniting these two areas, I don’t think it can go after taking Mariupol. The battle of Mariupol will be decisive, with the occupation he will be able to sell his people a tactical victory in Ukraine. If this operation does not go well and he feels compelled to restart and lead the fight in the big cities, especially in Kyiv, it would be a probable definitive defeat for him, including on the internal front. How, Caracciolo stresses, does one justify such a war if nothing is brought home?.
The war is continuing in Ukraine, but for Caracciolo there is no danger of an extended European conflict: “I rule out an attack on other countries, at least for the moment. He spent a large part of his military apparatus, twothirds of the armed forces were spent in Ukraine with modest results. It will all depend on what Americans want to do. If they decide that this war will go on and it will take hold in Ukraine for months and years, or if there is a risk of the war leveling, they are fine until it becomes a world war, if it remains a local struggle . Chemical or unconventional weapons can concludes Caracciolo’s argument change everything”.