As so often in diplomacy, the news is in the omissions. In the unspoken. It is therefore significant that Joe Biden and Mario Draghi did not mention new sanctions against Moscow after the joint telephone meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. A silence that speaks volumes about the difficulties the US and UK face in urging Europe to follow their example and stop imports of oil and gas from Russia. In all likelihood, a fifth package of sanctions will emerge from the EU Council on Thursday. But not on the energy front. Unless Commission sources explain that there was a further military escalation with the capture of Kiev by Vladimir Putin’s troops: in that case, a selective halt to Russian energy supplies could be decided, affecting oil and coal but not the gas on which Germany , Italy and Hungary, which has already announced its veto.
RussiaJapan, talks halt on the Kuril Islands: “Tokyo’s hostile stance”. What is happening in the Pacific
The video call, which followed a similar phone meeting from which Draghi was cut on March 7, lasted over an hour and was used by Biden to highlight “the brutal Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians.” Then, in a statement, the White House reiterated “the continued military and humanitarian support” in Kyiv. The scheme chosen by Draghi is more or less identical: the Italian Prime Minister, who followed the summit from the Palmanova Civil Protection Center, announced at the end that the five Heads of State or Government “reaffirmed the importance of the unity of objectives and actions”. the war. In addition, “given the serious humanitarian emergency,” the five “promised to coordinate their efforts to help the Ukrainian people.” No mention of the sanctions, in fact. But Biden had preceded the summit by calling for “a coordinated response” from allies towards Russia. And he had filtered confirmation that Washington was looking to further tighten EU sanctions by, as Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh explained, hitting “the highest peaks” of Russia’s economy by hitting other banks and “sectors that… we don’t have”. .touched’, mainly oil and gas. In the evening, the American Embassy in Rome said that “the United States expresses its deep appreciation for Italy’s leadership and commitment to the people of Ukraine.”
In the meantime, Draghi from Palmanova had shown himself to be levelheaded. «Sanctions on the energy front? We’ll see, we’ll see … » he answered. But the foreign minister, Luigi Di Maio, the prime minister, had let Brussels say that Italy was “completely open” to the hypothesis of a “fifth package of sanctions” against Russia, “awaiting the Commission’s proposal”. And above all: “She does not veto”. A tactical yes, the Italian one, since there is still no package of new antiMoscow measures on the table and, above all, Hungary’s “no” (since unanimity is required) is enough to stop the sanctions on the gas front. “We will not support any measures that endanger Hungary’s energy security,” said Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.
STABLE IN BRUSSELS
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock took a bath in reality in Brussels: “If we could stop oil imports from Russia, we would do that automatically, but first it is important to “understand how to reduce dependency. The counterattack from Budapest and Berlin stopped the pressure from the Eastern European countries, with Poland and the Baltics in the lead (Yesterday Ireland joined). In fact, the crossed vetoes also paralyzed the debate on energy sanctions in the Foreign Council, which instead approved a further €500 million in military aid to Ukraine. In the evening, High Representative Josep Borrell admitted: “Today was not a day for making concrete decisions.” Above all, he added: The restrictions on Moscow must not lead to “unacceptable costs for European states and citizens”. Hence the (almost) certainty that the EU Council will not impose sanctions on the energy front on Thursday. “It is impossible for Europe to do without our supplies,” the photo of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak. But the current sanctions are already hitting the heart of the Russian economy. According to Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance (the global banking lobby), the contraction in Russia’s GDP will be “15%” in 2022. Goldman Sachs further cuts its growth forecast for Russia to 10% from 7% after sanctions suggest exports will fall 20% in the second quarter and 10% in the second half. Barclays expects GDP to be 12.4% this year.
© REPRODUCTION RESERVED