In the summer of 1989 Franz Fukuyama He published an article in The National Interest entitled The End of History?, which captured the spirit of the time well. In the political scientist’s vision, with the crisis of the Soviet Union which dissolved shortly afterwards, in 1991 the last great dictatorship on earth was also on the verge of collapse, defeated by liberalism, the only possible winner and ultimate goal of the historical evolution of man and society . According to Fukuyama, thanks to the victory of liberalism on a global scale, the world would have expected a future of peace and prosperity from then on, since liberal democracies do not wage wars by their very nature and culture. Now Francis Fukuyama, who was interviewed by Corriere della Sera and commented on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin’s army, has returned to speak about the challenge between authoritarianism and liberal democracies. Knowing that eventually the story not only returned but never ended as he had suspected more than 30 years ago.
“Decisive battle between free countries and authoritarian regimes”
According to the scholar, the conflict is in Ukraine it is more than a war between two nations sharing a common history and roots: it is the “decisive battle between free countries and authoritarian regimes”. For Fukuyama, the world is indeed “no longer divided between right and left,” but “between democracies and authoritarian regimes.” On the one hand the West and the liberaldemocratic system, on the other hand China and Russia, which represent “the engine of the second front”. Putin, he explains, “has been at the center of this undemocratic network for years” and “sends troops everywhere, from Syria to Venezuela.”
Now Putin is trying to destroy itUkraine but “the result is much more important than the fate of Ukraine itself” because “it will give a powerful boost to democracies or totalitarianisms, depending on who will prevail”. The political scientist is certain: Wladimir Putin He made a serious mistake when he decided on February 24 to launch military operations in Ukraine. He underestimated the enemy and committed a grave miscalculation that will cost him dearly. “He thought he would take Ukraine in two days, and instead the fierce resistance of this people shows the world, and especially the young people who care little for the ideals of freedom and democracy they take for granted, the importance of their values “, explained. For Fukyama, geopolitical issues are therefore secondary to the ongoing struggle between liberal democracies and authoritarian regimes that the scholar identifies in China and Russia. It therefore puts the emphasis on the nature democratic or authoritarian of the regimes under consideration and not on the behavior of the great powers, as the “realistic” scholars do.
“Only a partial victory for Putin
In a way, for Francis Fukuyama, Ukraine’s resistance “represents the awakening of the West, and it will cost them dearly”. But be careful not to underestimate the tsar: “Putin can still win a victory he notes even if some other regimes tried to follow the same path”. In addition, according to the historian, the Kremlin leader compacted the western front, which reacted compactly. NATO, he explains, “has found an extraordinary unit that no one expected. It’s a precious commodity.” Not to mention that the front with Beijing is not as closed as it seems and as he might have hoped tsar: “After promising unlimited alliances to Putin with a certain ease, China is concerned.” Will it be the end of history for Putin? For now, it remains a risky prognosis.