As the US prepares to move away from Covid, many health officials are ditching daily case reports and other data surveillance efforts and instead investing resources elsewhere, but an expert warns that this will leave America ‘blind’ during the pandemic, just as the signs begin to show. it appears that soon the number of cases will start to rise again.
Last week, South Dakota became the tenth U.S. state to phase out daily Covid case reporting, instead moving to only report cases once a week. However, “daily” reports are not a reality for many states, as those participating in daily case reports still only provide data three or four days a week.
Many of these states have also cut funding for Covid testing sites and other facilities set up specifically to fight the virus.
The move is a sign that America is beginning to feel ready to put the pandemic behind us as cases are declining and the milder Omicron variant, combined with more vaccinated residents, means that even those who are infected often suffer mild cases.
However, not all experts are sure about this. Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist at Boston Children’s Hospital, described the end of Covid surveillance as America’s attempt to repeat past failures.
Cases are starting to rise again in other parts of the world, including the UK, which often sees the same trends as the US, just a few weeks earlier. Daily infections jumped 30 percent across the pond to around 225,000 per day.
“Testing has always been the cornerstone of our response to the pandemic. Without this surveillance data, we are flying blind and will almost certainly repeat the mistakes of the past,” Braunstein told ABC.
Dr. John Brownstein (pictured), an epidemiologist at Boston Children’s Hospital, described the rollback of Covid surveillance measures as an opportunity to “fly blindly”.
“When we close testing centers, we not only put individuals, their contacts and their communities at risk, but we also undermine critical public health infrastructure.”
Brownstein’s warning came just as there were signs that America could be entering a new phase of the pandemic. The US is currently averaging 31,070 cases per day across the country, down three percent from last week and 95 percent less than the Omicron variant’s peak of nearly 800,000 cases per day.
However, this luck may soon change. Cases are now starting to rise over the past two weeks in five US states, including New York, which has so far served as a kind of canary in the coal mine during the pandemic.
New York has recorded a 21 percent rise in Covid infections over the past two weeks, becoming the first state to record a substantial jump in almost two months.
Manhattan, New York’s largest population center, also recorded a 17 percent increase over the past week, fueling even more population growth in the state.
However, the state is still at 1,000 cases per day, which is a very small number that pales in comparison to the nearly 40,000 cases per day mark reached at the peak of the Omicron variant.
Other states that have recorded growth include Nevada (up 29 percent in the last two weeks), Arkansas (18 percent), Colorado (10 percent), and Rhode Island (4 percent).
The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that two weeks ago, the number of Covid cases increased by eight percent worldwide, to 11 million. This comes after several weeks of falling cases. More recent data is expected to be published on Tuesday.
The biggest jump was recorded in the Western Pacific region, where the number of cases increased by 25 percent every week. Africa saw a 14 percent jump and Europe saw a 2 percent jump.
European countries, which often lead the US by several months during a pandemic, are among those that have experienced alarming growth. In the UK, the number of cases has jumped by about 32 per cent in the last week to 225,000 a day.
The WHO warns that the rise in infections is just the beginning of what could be a harsh spring season for some parts of the world.
“This increase comes despite reduced testing in some countries, which means the cases we are seeing are just the tip of the iceberg,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said last week.
Brownstein warns that the lack of adequate data collection and reporting tools over the next few months will allow the virus to largely circulate undetected, leaving Americans vulnerable due to a lack of available information.
“Comprehensive case data is critical to an effective response. As we have seen throughout the pandemic, lack of data leads to bad decisions and ultimately costs lives,” he said.
The recent upsurge in the US and much of the world is fueled by the “invisible” variant, or BA.2, of the Omicron bloodline as it is officially known.
This line currently dominates the UK, Denmark and many other European countries as it was quickly able to surpass the original BA.1 variant.
However, the BA.2 failed to gain a foothold in the US in the same way it did in much of Europe. BA.2 accounts for 23 percent of active Covid cases in the US, with BA.1 still dominating, according to the latest data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last week. Updated data is expected to be published on Tuesday.
The Omicron variant as a whole accounts for every single US sequencing case, with a highly transmissible, vaccine-resistant strain completely eradicating the Delta variant this year, according to the CDC.
However, BA.2’s share of Covid infections in America is growing rapidly, with the variant accounting for only 11 percent of sequenced cases last week, and only six percent the week before.
It is most prevalent in New Jersey and New York, as well as in the northeastern regions of the United States, accounting for about 40 percent of cases in both of these areas, which explains the recent spike in cases in the region.
This strain is not yet the dominant strain of Covid anywhere in the Americas, while it has spread to many parts of Europe.
While the WHO is still issuing dire warnings, most signs point to things going well in the US this spring. The organization has been one of the most cautious voices throughout the pandemic, and as a global organization, its vision extends beyond the US and Western Europe.
America has a particularly high vaccination rate, according to the CDC. Nearly 90 percent of US adults have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and nearly 100 million have been boosted.
New shots could also be coming: Moderna submitted data to regulators last week to approve a fourth dose of the vaccine for all adults in the US. Pfizer, the company’s main competitor in vaccine introduction in the US, also released fourth-shot data for Americans aged 65 and over.
The death rate from Covid in the country is also relatively low. America averages 1,099 deaths a day, down 11% from last week.
