During the Cold War, the US tested an atomic bomb 1,000 times more powerful than that dropped on Hiroshima, while Russia even tested a device 3,000 times more powerful than that used in World War II. Today both Moscow and Washington have nuclear weapons that are far less destructive and a fraction of the power of the Hiroshima bomb: their use may be less frightening, but therefore more plausible. Concerns about these smaller weapons increased when Vladimir Putin warned everyone about his nuclear power during the war in Ukraine and alerted his nuclear forces, causing his military to carry out risky attacks on nuclear power plants. The fear is that if Putin feels cornered in the conflict, he may decide to detonate one of his smaller nuclear weapons, breaking the taboo established 76 years ago after Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Analysts note that Russian troops have long practiced the transition from conventional to nuclear warfare, mainly to gain the upper hand after suffering losses sustained on the battlefield. “The possibilities are small but increasing,” Ulrich Kühn, a nuclear expert at the University of Hamburg and head of the arms control and new technologies program, told the New York Times. “The war is not going well for the Russians and the pressure from the West is growing. Instead of at the troops, Putin could fire a gun at an uninhabited area,” analyzes Dr. Kühn, who in a 2018 study outlined a crisis scenario in which Moscow detonated a bomb on a remote part of the North Sea to signal further deadly attacks. “It’s terrible to talk about these things. But we have to keep in mind that this is becoming possible,” concluded the expert.
Washington expects more nuclear moves from Putin in the coming days. It’s also likely that Moscow will “increasingly rely on its nuclear deterrent to keep the West on alert and to make its strength understood,” according to the scenario Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, predicted Committee on Armed Services presented to the US Chamber.
