It is becoming “more and more likely” that Belarus will enter the conflict, a NATO military representative said on Monday. “(Russian President Vladimir) Putin needs support. Anything would help,” the official explained.
A Belarusian opposition source said Belarusian combat units were ready to invade Ukraine in the next few days, with thousands of forces ready to deploy. According to this source, given the impact of another country entering the war, this would have less of an impact on the military than on the geopolitical level.
A senior NATO intelligence official said separately that the alliance assesses that the Belarusian government is “preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine.”
Russia has partially launched its attack on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, and ahead of last month’s invasion of the Kremlin in Ukraine, which the two countries claimed was for training exercises, thousands of Russian troops were massing in Belarus. US and European sanctions in response to the war are targeting both Russian and Belarusian officials, including Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Belarus last month requested a constitutional amendment to allow the country to permanently station both Russian forces and nuclear weapons, although US officials have stressed to CNN that they have yet to see any evidence that Russia is moving or preparing to move nuclear weapons .
The sources stressed that there was no evidence so far that Belarus was currently taking part in the fighting in Ukraine, and a senior US defense official said the Pentagon had “seen no signs that Belarusians are preparing to go into the Ukraine.” invade Ukraine or that they have any arrangements to do so.”
The NATO military official said that a final decision on Belarus’ participation in the war still has to be made in Moscow, so far there is no evidence that Belarusian armed forces are taking part in the fighting in Ukraine.
“It’s not about what Lukashenko wants,” the official explained. “The question is: does Putin want another unstable country in the region?”
“An engagement would destabilize Belarus,” the official said.
The official declined to elaborate on how Belarus might intervene in the war, but said it made sense that Russia was trying to cut off NATO military aid coming into Ukraine from the western border.