A month after the Russian invasion ofUkraine many wonder if the next Winter consists of empty supermarkets and freezing houses. It’s good to be clear right away: The risks for food are very low In heating and some industrial productions, we have to face complicated times without bandaging our heads before we break them. The Premier also fed the topic, Mario Draghiwhich has been hypothesized in Parliament in recent days, a possible one in an emergency Rationing (for some industries) Electricity.
Gasoline, take the discount on the price today: with the excise duty cut, it costs 30.5 cents less
ITALIAN GDP CONTINUES TO GROW
Then what can we expect? Of course nobody has a crystal ball. However, in order to orient oneself in this new scenario, two points of reference must be set. The first: The Italian economy will continue to grow in 2022, likely around 3% versus the 4.5%+ forecast last year. Secondly, we have to separate the issues macroeconomicsuch as B. international agreements on gas imports or large electricity consumption, from these microeconomic or the consumption of individual families, which also depends on the availability of raw materials.
LOW RISKS FOR FOOD
So is it conceivable that bread, pasta, meat and other foods or basic needs are somehow endangered? The answer is clear: “no”. The Italian supply chains do not take any significant risks for in the world there is a great availability of food not only for human consumption but also for that of animals. Soya, maize, durum wheat and common wheat are produced in large quantities in Europe, America and Australia. A lot of food is surplus grown and cheap, but that’s about it possible some prices they can increase because new suppliers have to be found. Then a logistical problem is reported: some ports have not been able to quickly unload the large amount of ships that have concentrated there in recent months.
VOLUME OF OIL, EXPENSIVE GASOLINE
The other commonly heard question is about energy: will we have enough gas for our cars? Is there enough gas for our heaters? Here the discussion becomes more articulate. Let’s say one thing right away: oil is not scarce Much of it is produced all over the world and if you decide to stop importing the Russian you could produce even more. Iran, for example, it exports relatively little today, but if an international agreement were reached on its nuclear power, it could “flood” international markets with vast amounts of crude oil. It is no coincidence that Russia and Israel are reticent about this possible agreement.
Inflation, Confesercenti: The race goes on, maxi stitch on families
The gas discussion is different. The day before yesterday, Federal Finance Minister Cristian Lindner made a sentence to think about: “We were stupid to focus our gas purchases on Russia”. Lindner was furious with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, but Italy also made the same mistake, even reducing it from 20 billion cubic meters to 3 billion the production of national gas in the Adriatic which also costs very little. Righting the boat is not easy now and it is possible that next winter we will have less fuel than we are used to consuming.
ELECTRICITY, CONTROLLED CONSUMPTION FOR THE GLASS AND ALUMINUM INDUSTRY
What can actually happen? We will certainly reduce imports of Russian gas, trying to buy it from other countries. Then we could reignite some coalfired power plants that are now shut down. But then we could start with two levers: reduce the heating temperature of our houses, schools and our offices (as the city of Rome is already doing) and rationing gas use in factories that use a lot of gas, such as those that produce aluminum or glass. These businesses may be forced to work staggered hours (e.g. nights of certain weeks or certain days of the week) or close for short periods. The goal would be Avoid power consumption peaks which force you to burn additional gas to generate electricity. As you can see, the scenario is more complex than that of empty supermarkets, but it’s good to prepare for a difficult winter.
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